Relations between North and South Korea (ROK) continue to simmer in the aftermath of the sinking of the South Korean warship, Chenoan, in which 46 sailors lost their lives. This week during a visit to South Korea, Secretary of State Clinton announced new sanctions against North Korea targeted at sale and purchase of arms and import of luxury goods. On 22 July, the Defense Chiefs of the United States and South Korea announced that the two nations will conduct an exercise called Invincible Spirit July 25 – 28.
The exercise is the first in a series of combined air and naval exercises that will be held off both the east and west coasts of South Korea. On the official web site for U.S. forces in Korea, the commander General Walter Sharp stated: “These defensive, combined training exercises are designed to send a clear message to North Korea that its aggressive behavior must stop, and that the ROK and U.S. are committed to enhancing our combined defensive capabilities.” General Sharp indicated the exercise will include over 200 aircraft, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington and ROK Naval Ship Dokdo.
U.S. and ROK joint military exercises are nothing new and have been conducted frequently over the years. What is interesting about this exercise are the usual objections from North Korea and particularly China seem far more intense than I can remember. According to a BBC press report, today while attending a Association of South East Asian Nations conference, North Korea’s representative Ri Tong-il, called the exercise an example of 19th Century gunboat diplomacy and said North Korea would have a “physical response” to the exercise. Of note, Secretary of State Clinton is also attending the conference and thus far there are no reports on her response to the statement.
I’m not sure what North Korea means by “physical response” but suspect they may do something with some of their military forces. In the Cold War days, when one side exercised its military forces, the other side sent military units to monitor the activity. That usually included things like deploying navy ships and aircraft. With North Korea who knows, it could be that or they could start lobbing missiles over the pacific for “tests”.
China appears to be flexing its pacific naval muscle with an attitude of “there’s a new sheriff in town”. According to a 20 July report in the New York Times “Gen. Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, said that China ‘strongly opposed’ the exercises.’”
On July 16th the Chinese People’s Daily published an article (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90780/91342/7069743.html#) where Major General Luo Yuan, deputy secretary general with the PLA Academy of Military Sciences stated five reasons behind China’s opposition to the exercises. Because of the importance of understanding the Chinese perspective here’s an excerpt of the article:
First, in terms of security, Chairman Mao Zedong once said, “We will never allow others to keep snoring beside our beds.” If the United States were in China’s shoes, would it allow China to stage military exercises near its western and eastern coasts? Just like an old Chinese saying goes, “Do not do unto others what you do not want others to do unto you,” if the United States does not wish to be treated in a specific way, it should not forcefully sell the way to others.
Second, in terms of strategic thinking, China should take into account the worst possibility and strive to seek the best results. The bottom line of strategic thinking is to nip the evil in the bud. The ultimate level of strategic thinking is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Preventing crisis is the best way to resolve and overcome the crisis. China’s current tough stance is part of preventive diplomacy.
Third, in terms of geopolitical strategy, the Yellow Sea is the gateway to China’s capital region and a vital passage to the heartland of Beijing and Tianjin. In history, foreign invaders repeatedly took the Yellow Sea as an entrance to enter the heartland of Beijing and Tianjin. The drill area selected by the United States and South Korea is only 500 kilometers away from Beijing. China will be aware of the security pressure from military exercises conducted by any country in an area that is so close to China’s heartland.
The aircraft carrier U.S.S. George Washington dispatched to the Yellow Sea has a combat radius of 600 kilometers and its aircraft has a combat radius as long as 1,000 kilometers. Therefore, the military exercise in the area has posed a direct security threat to China’s heartland and the Bohai Rim Economic Circle.
Fourth, in a bid to safeguard security on the Korean Peninsula, the U. N. Security Council has just issued a presidential statement, requiring all parties to remain calm and restrained to the so-called “Cheonan” naval ship incident, which had caused a major crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
On the other hand, the joint military exercise by the United States and South Korea on the Yellow Sea has created a new crisis. This is another reason why China strongly opposes the military exercise on the Yellow Sea. In order to safeguard security on the Korea Peninsula, no country should create a new crisis instead they should control and deal with the existing one.
Fifth, in terms of maintaining China-U.S. relations, especially the two parties’ military relations, China must declare its solemn stance. China has been working to promote the healthy development of China-U.S. military relations. Therefore, China has clearly declared that it is willing to promote the development of the two parties’ relations. Deputy Director of the General Staff Gen. Ma Xiaotian has also expressed his welcome to U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to visit China at a proper time.
It’s interesting that the Chinese objections seem to zero in on exercises in the Yellow Sea. The New York Times reports that “as recently as last October, the George Washington participated in naval exercises in the Yellow Sea with South Korea.” Thus far official U.S. announcements on the joint exercises have indicated they would be held off of both Korea’s east and west coast. It’s unclear at this time if the George Washington will operate in the Yellow Sea for exercises.
I think China has decided this is a good opportunity to flex their naval muscle on the world stage with a highly visible challenge to U.S. Pacific Fleet assets. As I understand it, Chinese strategists believe in order to protect their economic development they must maintain the security of their sea lines of communication. That requires a navy capable of operating well beyond coastal waters. According to an unclassified Naval Intelligence study “many Chinese Scholars and PLA(N) strategists now advocate a new strategy for the 21st century, termed ‘distant sea defense.’ This new strategy would not bound operations geographically, but rather be defined according to China’s maritime needs. (Office of Naval Intelligence, The People’s Liberation Army Navy A Modern Navy with Chinese Characteristics ( Suitland, MD, August 2009), pg. 6, accessed at http://www.nmic.navy.mil/Intelligence_Community/docs/china_army_navy.pdf)”.
Finally, I would not count out the Russian Navy in terms of who are the regional navy powers. Russia recently conducted a major naval exercise in the Pacific called Vostok 2010. During the Cold War, the former Soviet Union had one of the largest navy’s in the world. It took a major hit after the Cold War and was left as a shadow of its old self but it looks like Russia is building it up again.
Well that does it for now. I was going for a bike ride but its raining so think I’ll do a face plant on my couch. I’ll be watching this Korean exercise situation with interest. Have a couple of other topics I intend to blog on next week like the Washington Post article trashing the U.S. intelligence community and more on Afghanistan’s COIN strategy. I was given the honor this week of speaking directly to some of the individuals involved in training the Afghanistan Army and Police. Got lots of good data I’d like to pass on. Have a good weekend. As always, my opinions are my own.
