Sadrists Set to Back Allawi?

We all know the broad strokes.

The state of Iraq has been politically rudderless since March 7 elections for the Council of Representatives failed to produce a clear coalition winner. Although former PM Ayad Allawi’s  Iraqiya slate won a two-seat victory over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition, they didn’t score with sufficient clout to form a government alone. With violence on the rise, the U.S. combat mission in Iraq is essentially over, and set to transition to its advisory stage — Operation New Dawn — on August 31. Tensions are running nearly as hot as the late-summer temperatures and the four hours of electricity per day provides little relief from the heat…or clean water for that matter.

Of course, it’s anyone’s guess when the government will form and what shape (and loyalties) it will take when it eventually does so. However, recent developments may suggest there’s light at the end of the proverbial tunnel…

According to the Voices of Iraq news agency, Ziyad al-Darb, a lawmaker from Iraqiya, confirmed that Sadrist lawmakers were throwing their political capital behind Allawi for prime minister. As reported by UPI, Darb told the Iraqi news agency that negotiations with Iraqiya “have reached advanced phases” and Sadrists have “expressed their approval to nominate Allawi for the prime minister post and to form a new government.”

The Sadr Scene

Interesting, indeed. While Sadr had hinted in July that Iraqiya had the leadership necessary to form a new government, this move would mark a departure from the marriage of convenience anticipated between the Sadrists and Maliki’s State of Law. Sadr and al-Maliki were unlikely allies to begin with given the bloody 2008 conflict that pitted US and Iraqi security forces against the radical cleric’s Mahdi Army that ultimately forced his exile to Iran.

Perhaps even more interesting, the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Aswat is reporting Sadr may be preparing for a move from Iran to Lebanon after balking over pressure from Iran to support a second term for al-Maliki.

If these reports are true, then the Sadr bloc which comprises 10 percent of the 375 member parliament could help push Allawi over the edge. This would mark a notable setback for Persian politics. Of course and as ever, however, political horse-trading is business as usual in Iraq and we won’t know till all the chips are down.