On Thursday I wrote the following:
Nigeria’s January elections promise to be intensely fought. Which means that the specter of upheaval, interparty violence, and voter coercion looms. The process will start in October when the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) holds primaries for the presidential race in zones around the country on three consecutive days from October 18-20. The party will ratify a single candidate on October 23. President Goodluck Jonathan plans to run, but his campaign will be controversial since by agreement within the PDP (though not by any mandate) presidential power is supposed to rotate between the mostly Muslim north and the predominantly Christian south every two terms. Jonathan is a Southerner from the Niger Delta. This is the sternest test of Nigeria’s democracy since the end of military rule more than a decade ago.
Well, it did not take long for something to go awry. According to allAfrica: “A major constitutional crisis is in the offing as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said it may ask for an extension of time for the registration of voters and the general election.” Officials claim that the May 29, 2011 inauguration day is “sacrosanct,” but it is hard to feel good about this latest turn.
