Robert Mugabe is rattling sabers about ending Zimbabwe’s coalition government, in which he and his ZANU-PF party has reluctantly shared power with Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Mugabe recently appointed some senior government officials without Tsvangirai’s input and naturally the MDC leader and Prime Minister finds such unilateralism unacceptable. Tsvangirai sees the writing on the wall and hopes that the international community will do something to address the country’s constitutional crisis.
Two connected questions emerge from Tsvangirai’s request, which, sadly and through no fault of his own, hints at both wishful thinking and not a little desperation. First: What can the international community do? Second: Will it do so?
The answers blur. The problem in dealing with self-styled immovable objects is that only real force is likely to move them. And I am not sure that anyone wants to travel that path to prove to Mygabe that he can indeed be moved. The West does not care enough to expend the resources. Zimbabwe’s neighbors almost certainly would not want to see force used. And it is hard to see whether the use of force would be especially effective. Sanctions have proven largely ineffectual. Barring SADC action — and color me skeptical about that, all things considered — my guess is that the West, by which I mean the United States and European Union, will wag their fingers and say all the right things and tighten sanctions and prod South Africa and the rest of SADC to act. And if things get violence enough and thus threaten to spill over the borders of Zambia and Mozambique and Botswana and South Africa maybe this time SADC will be roused to action. Otherwise expect half measures.
I hope I am wrong. But we have seen this movie before and the ending does not change.
