The EU is none too fond of referendums. As most will recall, it was the pesky public and its fear of all things Brussels that sunk the EU Constitution Treaty, which, after considerable wrangling, was adopted in a revised version as the Treaty of Lisbon. Following the announcement by European leaders of the European Council’s intention to implement a “small, small, small” (in the words of one Danish euro diplomat) treaty revision – intended to secure a permanent fiscal crisis mechanism – the referendum drums are beating again. The crisis mechanism is intended to replace the intermediate bail-out fund, implemented after in the wake of the eurozone crisis. This mechanism is set to expire in 2013.
Of course, the “small, small, small” aspect of the revision was precisely to avoid too much interference in the procedure. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the EU Council can amend the treaty, as long as the decision is unanimous, and the revision does not expand EU competencies. Under these circumstances, an amendment can be made without an Intergovernmental Conference and the concurrent clash of views among the member states. Furthermore, the European Parliament needs only be consulted, instead of enjoying voting rights, as would be the case under the co-decision procedure. Following a unanimous decision by the Council, each country would then have to adopt the revision according to their constitution. Enter the dreaded referendum.
Although most countries are expected to ratify the treaty by a parliamentary vote, the Dutch – bane of the EU constitution – are again the “referendum culprits”. The far-right Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders making bedmates of the leftwing Socialist Party (SP) have both aired the possibility of a Dutch referendum. The PVV have expressed their intention of calling for a referendum if severe sanctions toward countries that breach their EU fiscal commitments are not included in the revision. In getting the Council to support the revision, Germany and France were forced to back down on precisely such an inclusion, i.e. the so-called “nuclear option”, which would entail the suspension of member states’ Council voting rights for countries deemed to be eurozone budget sinners.
The PVV/SP referendum proposal will, however, require the cooperation of the main opposition party, the Labor Party, which is not expected to announce its position on the matter until European Council President Herman Van Rompuy delivers his treaty amendment proposal in December. In the meantime, we shall see if referendum drums will start to beat in any other countries – say, Ireland?
