A proposition for major cuts on the uniformed and civilian division of the German army has been suggested to the German Defense minister, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg by an expert commission. The plan would be to downgrade the Bundeswehr from 250.000 to 180.000. Mr. zu Guttenberg has been calling for cutting military spending by professionalizing the army. Another recommendation is to move the ministry from Bonn to Berlin, while cutting the number of civil servants by half (from 3000 to 1500). These recommendations are not definitive as a final concept report will be completed by a working group and presented to the German government by the beginning of 2011. Such political considerations have been cu
rrent in European politics. The UK went through such process, Germany is thinking about it, and France will probably be next.
Behind the issue on defense budget cuts, important cognitive and strategic questions emerge. Some have been arguing that it makes absolute financial sense to do so. But does it make sense from a military/strategic point of view? And if so, why? From a military stand point, it does make sense for Western European powers to do so as their national security, at least at the regional level, is not directly endangered. The European Union has been an extremely successful instrument in making war unthinkable at least in the Northern and Western part of the European continent. France, the UK, and Germany do not need a strong army in order to protect their respective borders and fight conventional regional wars, but only to project their power abroad, meaning on the regional and international stage.
The cognitive variable is also extremely important bridging the gap between a ‘rational’ financial decision and the perceptions and reality of threats. Direct conventional military threats affecting the security of Western Europe are very improbable. Even with Russia in the European backyard employing a foreign policy based on realpolitik, proven to be dangerous for its direct neighbors, Russia has been seeking to solidify its relations with Western powers through the new nuclear treaty, increasing NATO dialogue and so on. However, the emergence of new threats, biological, terrorist, environmental and cyber, is becoming part of the reality of world politics. In order to face these unconventional regional and global threats, one should expect a reform of military strategies and a transformation of military capabilities. Such point has been very sensitive, because cutting defense budget without a clear defense strategy based on adequate threat assessment could seriously increase the degree of insecurity of each state. In the case of the UK, it seems that the debate on the adjustment of the military strategy in accordance with spending has not been significant enough.
The debate at the time of an international shift of balance of power is important considering the emergence of new powers, China, India, and others. Adjusting military strategies between conventional and non-conventional army is becoming difficult. One of the most probable solutions will be an increase of military alliances. France and the UK have proven that deep military cooperation, sharing of nuclear and military capabilities, is possible. The Treaty of November 2, 2010 between the two biggest European military powers is the example.
In this multipolar system, one should expect the beginning of game of alliances between medium powers, read France, UK, and others, in order to balance against superpowers, China and the US. The treaty between France and the UK is a good thing for European integration, but a sign that the world order in this beginning of 21st century is becoming less and less stable.
