A number of problems confront the government of South Sudan in preparation for a January referendum on independence.Voter registration is underway, but a delay in the vote could push Africa’s largest nation back to civil war.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary General, said on Tuesday that he fears the spread of “wider conflict” if the vote is delayed. Among the many obstacles in the path to independence are delays in funding the referendum, reform of the South’s military, and an agreement on oil sharing.
Strangely, USAID and other international actors have refused to pay any money to the South Sudan Referendum Commission, instead sending their grants to Khartoum. Khartoum then withholds critical funding meant to support the referendums in South Sudan and nearby Abyei. Earlier this week, Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil, the chairman of the commission, directed his anger toward international donors, saying, “This is an utter waste of money. We said to them that the schedule is very, very tight, pushed to the maximum and it does not have any margin for error.”
Even if the vote arrives on time, and the south Sudanese vote for independence, the government in Juba faces serious hurdles in reforming the army and preventing a return to conflict. Southern Sudanese President Salva Kiir’s greatest accomplishment might have come in 2006 when he oversaw the integration of former militia leaders into the South Sudanese Army. Still, child soldiers, conflicting loyalties, and tribal rivalries remain.
Sharing Sudan’s vast oil resources is another long-term problem. Much of the functioning oil wells lie in South Sudan or Abyei, but the South will have to depend on the North to get the oil to market. Both sides must accept an eventual cooperation agreement.
It will be exciting to watch the progress of the independence referendum in the coming months. However, a return to violence would be tragic. Sudan recently emerged from the longest civil war on the African continent, a conflict that cost millions of lives and will take many years to forget. The international community has been very vocal in its support for the referendum but the United States, the United Nations, and Britain, in particular, must help keep the vote on track to a peaceful resolution.
Photo courtesy of Foreign Policy.
