Wikileaks has dominated international headlines with information haemorrhaging out of secret US files with an often muted result, some bad results and in some cases, even positive developments. While much of the information are things that journalists and analysts likely knew already, the interest in seeing secret documents in their original form has captured the common speak of media worldwide. Considering that those analysts who work for the US government are often recruited as experts on foreign policy beforehand and are trained and study with open policy experts that consistently publish and advise on those issues and testify and lobby Congress, the information just confirms in most cases what we all knew already. There are some issues like information gathering on UN officials that will have consequences, but for the most part it just opens a dialogue that we all should have had in any case.
Regarding Latin America, the leaks mostly refer to Mexico and leftists in the region, and everyone is waiting nervously for the new information to be released, especially on Brazil and Argentina. So far the information we have received that has created some buzz are the change in attitude of US officials to the Kirchners. This is no surprise as the late Nestor Kirchner took to crusade against the IMF, but the tone and attitude US diplomats had to Nestor in the past and recently towards President Cristina Kirchner shows that US interests in Argentina might need to be more inviting and less negative in general, as acknowledged by many US officials as well after the fact. Interestingly enough, it showed Clinton’s desire to seek information on the personality and state of Cristina after the passing of her husband, concerned it seems with the difficulties in dealing with the Argentine President in her current state of mind. The American attitude towards Evo Morales was also discussed. Beyond the realisation that he went to Brazil to treat a nasal tumour, it showed that the US is concerned with Bolivia but did not have any intentions or fear against Morales in any significant way, but was concerned that a coca farmer might become President of their country. As well, Brazilian officials noted that Chavez likely funded political movements in Bolivia, accusations by US allies that have always existed when leftists needed help in the region.
A major realisation of great interest and what one official called the “Axis of Mischief” is the degree and level of involvement that Cuban intelligence had in Venezuela and towards Chavez directly. It seems that the leaks point out that Cuban intelligence often has influence beyond Venezuela’s own intelligence officials within Venezuela itself, and that some report directly to President Chavez. Another note is that US and Brazilian officials have been working closely together with Lula behind that scenes rather than publicly, Brazil noting their desire to stay as a middle broker between the capitalists and leftists in the region and their concern that US actions or relations with Brazil might harm their favoured middle position. The US also seeks greatly to have strong ties with Brazil in the region and is working hard to cultivate this relationship, but anyone who sat in on discussions in Washington between the Brazilian Ambassador and US officials would realise this quickly. Admissions that both countries know of FARC activities within Venezuela are no surprise to Colombia, but now it is published on Wikileaks, and I’m sure it is worth the read.
What seems to be most interesting would be the intelligence reports that link Venezuela and Iran. Not much has been released about that relationship as of yet, but it is sure to change the way we see the development of foreign policy in the region, not just between the US, Venezuela and Iran, but all of their allies in Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. What will link to US concerns with terrorism and Iran is the leaks concerning the lack of action in curbing the financial instruments used by Al Qaeda by many of its allies in the Middle East. Noted in the article by COHA: Bienvenido Senior Ahmadinejad: Tehran’s Expanding Latin American Grid, author Geoff LeGrand points out that Iran’s involvement in Venezuela’s financial and aid agencies might be used to promote Iranian interest in the Americas and worldwide. LeGrande points out:
It will likely be the case that if any US or other Wikileaks challenge the relationship between Iran and Venezuela, that it will become the most important and influential Wikileaks to affect the region. The major US concerns that bring the UN Security Council to place sanctions on Iran and leaks that have pushed Iran to increase the production and resistance to sanctions would envelope and invigorate the leftist-capitalist relationship in Latin America. The thought that Iran might have a base to strike the US from Venezuela, as implausible as some might see it would override any subtleness on the US Venezuela policy or support for Iran’s green movement in limiting a strong US response. I recommend that everyone read Geoff LeGrand’s article from COHA before Wikileaks sets to publish reports on Iran and Venezuela. A proper and balanced discussion of this issue is well deserved before the further publication of the Wikileaks reports.
Articles for Suggested Reading:
COHA: Bienvenido Senior Ahmadinejad: Tehran’s Expanding Latin American Grid, by Geoff LeGrand
COHA: Wikileaks and Latin America: Same Old Imperious U.S. Diplomats, by Nikolas Kozloff
