Things are not good as the Ivory Coast post-election standoff continues. Both incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and opposition leader Alassane Ouattara have claimed victory after the 28 November poll but virtually every legitimate outside observer recognizes Ouattara as the legitimate winner. Hundreds have fled as food security and shortages of basic goods are becoming a legitimate concern in a country that has long faced regional political division. The United Nations is preparing to pull its people out of the country.
There are lots of ways to spin this and it will be spun in every one of those ways. But as is so often the case in these conflicts political leaders have the ability to calm the situation. Curb the rhetoric. Encourage supporters to go home. And in the case of Gbagbo, face the inevitable. Contested results are one thing, but it is pretty clear that the only contestation is coming from another leader who does not want to give up power and all that it brings. How a politician leaves office can be as important as what he or she does while in it.
Short of Gbagbo conceding and getting his supporters to go along (these sorts of things tend to take on a life of their own until a politician realizes that he doesn’t have as much control over his supporters as he once did) we are in the placating egos and negotiations phase, with West African leaders as well as former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who clearly is trying to cultivate elder statesman status after his Presidency imploded, trying to break through the impasse.
One possibility is that Ivory Coast will split in two along the dividing lines separating the predominantly Christian south from the largely Muslim north that have so fractured the country. Whether this will take the form of a full secession or a de facto division would be one of the many fraught issues on the table if a satisfactory resolution to the election cannot be achieved.
