Foreign Policy Blogs

‘Things Fall Apart’ in Ivory Coast

To borrow from William Butler Yeats’s poem, things fall apart; the centre cannot hold, this time in the Ivory Coast despite the recent election designed to reunify the country. A standoff between the incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo and the opposition leader Alassane Quattara is sliding the country back into another civil war.  Stubbornly both men are claiming victory after being declared by different electoral bodies, and inaugurated in dueling ceremonies last Saturday.

Supported by the Ivory Coast Army and the Constitutional Council (headed by his close ally), the incumbent Gbagbo, a Paris educated history professor, and an early opponent of the late President Félix Houphouët-Boigny, came to power through the same methods he is refusing to concede to when he felt that he was cheated in the October 2000 election. After Robert Guéï (the military leader) claimed victory in the election, held on October 22, 2000, Gbagbo (who claimed he had actually won with 59.4% of the vote), organized a street revolt which forced Guéï out of power.

Backed by the election commission, rebel groups, and the international community (UN, IMF, the West African regional body ECOWAS, and Western governments), on his part, Quattara has the hallmarks of a modern President: Chief economist, ex-Africa Director of the IMF, and technocrat. But I also see a Karzai on his face. Seen as a savior of Afghanistan, Karzai had all the attributes needed (so thought his backers) to change course in Afghanistan. But now it is becoming clear that he is not the Mandela the world hoped for Afghanistan.

The African Union (AU), which is yet to take a clear stand on the issue, dispatched Mbeki (former South African President who himself was booted out of office by the ANC hardliners) to try to mediate. But what Mbeki could achieve remains to be seen because he does not have a lot on the table to offer. If history tells us anything, and judging from the AU’s usual precedent of dealing with electoral disputes, Mbeki has two options: To press for another Unity Government (which is the same formula the AU is using in Kenya and Zimbabwe) or to force Gbagbo to accept the defeat.  But the latter is unlikely because the AU member states would probably not support it. AU leaders are wary of any intervention approaches that make them look like they are weak or influenced by the west.

As for the first option to work (i.e., pressing for a unity government, followed by elections), you need a Mandela-like figure, which both Gbagbo and Quattara are not.  Not to disregard voters’ intentions, but I am starting to wonder if an election in the Ivory Coast was the best solution for the country at this stage. Elections are vital in any democracy, but in societies rift with divisions and ethnic politics, elections can be a recipe for disaster.

In addition, a compromise through a unity government is top-down, and does not provide for ordinary citizens to participate in the solution. Therefore it may calm tension, but this approach focuses too much on appeasing contending individual leaders, which is usually allowing the incumbent president to stay in office while the opposition leader gets a prime minister position.

I think what Ivory Coast needs right now is something different, a hiatus between a unity government and election, to help the country transition towards a political culture of institutions. This is what is missing that when Félix Houphouët-Boign died, it was not the country’s political institutions that died, but Félix the institution, the center of the Ivorian society. He was the glue that kept everything together, not the political institutions. He was the decider, the implementer. In short, he was the politics of the Ivory Coast, and never allowed political institutions to flourish. Without him as the center of politics, you have chaos

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Author

Ndumba J. Kamwanyah

Ndumba Jonnah Kamwanyah, a native of Namibia in Southern Africa, is an independent consultant providing trusted advice and capacity building through training, research, and social impact analysis to customers around the world. Mos recently Ndumba returned from a consulting assignment in Liberia in support of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL).
In his recent previous life Ndumba taught (as an Adjunct Professor) traditional justice and indigenous African political institutions in sub-Saharan Africa at the Rhode Island College-Anthropology Department.

He is very passionate about democracy development and peace-building, and considers himself as a street researcher interested in the politics of everyday life.
Twitter: NdumbaKamwanyah