Overview
For the EU, 2010 has been a very eventful year. In particular, 2010 will be remembered as the year of the euro-meltdown. As this event undoubtedly will overshadow any evaluation of the EU anno 2010, it is worth remembering that the EU entered the year with some definite plusses. After much wrangling, the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force on December 1 2009 potentially heralding a more streamlined and democratic EU. In particular, proponents of the treaty pointed to the extended powers of the European Parliament as a sign of a more democratic union, and the creation of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (EU speak for foreign policy chief) as a sign of the EU’s growing potential as a major actor on the world stage. Nevertheless, as Lisbon rounds its first birthday, the EU hardly has little reason to celebrate. Arguably the crisis has provided an opportunity for the Lisbon treaty to prove its worth. Take for example the value of having a permanent European Council President, in the shape of Herman Van Rompuy, to agitate for budget discipline and a permanent bailout mechanism. As things stand it is perhaps too much to ask to view the glass as half full. But as a dismal 2010 draws to an end it is worth asking; what state would the EU would be in without Lisbon?
Most unexpected event
A particularly surprising development was the decision to choose the unknown Lady Catherine Ashton as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Surprising is perhaps the wrong word. In a Brussels-centric sense it is not surprising that the EU chose an unknown entity to lead the prestigious, powerful, and politically sensitive European diplomatic corps, the EEAS. After all, following the logic of Brussels, had the candidate been an established figure, the European actors would already have invested political capital in approving or disapproving the candidate, ensuring that the setting-up of the EEAS would meet with even more difficulties than was the case. Nevertheless, pulling Catherine Ashton out of the hat came unexpectedly for most.
Person of the year
Very much apropos the year’s most unexpected event; The EU’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, has proven critics wrong, and has handled the setting-up of the European diplomatic corps, the EEAS, quite well indeed. Upon her appointment, the “nobody” was roundly criticized as an unsuitable lightweight, incapable of lifting the huge task of setting up the EEAS. Nevertheless, after a tug-of-war between the European Parliament, Commission, and Council – related to the competencies, funding, and composition of the EEAS – the diplomatic corps was launched without fanfare on December 1. Navigating the tricky negotiations and successful launching of the EEAS has improved Catherine Ashton’s credentials immensely, and has proven the merits of her low-key style.
What to watch in 2011
The financial crisis has posed the EU with its gravest challenge to date. The gravity of the situation has provided previously heretic ideas with some merit. For example, implementing some form of “federal” budgetary oversight over national purse strings, or levying a direct EU tax that would guarantee the EU’s supranational institutions independence from national parliaments. Although it will be interesting to see what fait these innovations will meet in 2011, they have so far mainly been met with skepticism from European leaders and public alike. Instead more moderate projects have been launched. Most recently, an agreement has been reached to amend the Treaty of Lisbon in order to set up a permanent bailout mechanism. The treaty altercation was however designed with minimalism in mind, so as not to trigger to much involvement of national parliaments and, god forbid, referendums. If this enlargement of the EU’s financial toolkit proves inadequate, it will perhaps be time for larger scale innovations. Alternately the public’s euro-skepticism could prove stronger than the desire to save the common currency. In short, it is hard to say whether 2011 will lead to a more, or less, integrated Europe. 2011 could prove to be a make-or-break year for the EU. Key to which way things will go will be how the novelties of the Treaty of Lisbon are implemented.
