There is really only one fitting word to describe Israel in 2010 – “stam.” When Israelis have buyer’s remorse and know they shouldn’t have invested in that useless gadget, they say “stam.” When Israelis see a soccer player kick the ball out of bounds instead of toward the net, they say “stam.” When Israelis see soldiers sent to battle for no legitimate security goals, they say “stam.” 2010 was the year of “stam,” with many missed opportunities and unnecessary deaths plaguing Israel.
Overview
Peace Process: The Year of Stam began with the hope that the peace process would take off, the Palestinians would be on the verge of statehood and Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank would be done for good. The Obama administration exerted its foreign policy might by sending Amb. George Mitchell to meet with Israeli and Palestinian leaders and pressuring Israel to end settlements, even at the expense of having many pro-Israel advocates condemn the White House for straining U.S.-Israeli ties. As the year went on, the peace process sputtered to a start and fizzled out. Demands on settlement moratorium extensions went nearly unanswered as Palestinians continue to refuse direct talks until Israeli construction in the West Banks is halted. Those U.S. demands for Israeli settlement freezes did not result in their intended outcome, but instead created skepticism of U.S. support for Israel and a change in strategy to focus on permanent borders and not settlements to resume peace talks. A year dedicated to Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and an end to settlements resulted in neither goal realized.
Blame for the stalled and largely unchanged peace process falls on many shoulders. Chiefly, both Israeli and Palestinian officials refused to concede their chief policy positions and become the leaders for peace. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has weakened support in the West Bank and concessions on settlements, the right of return or Jerusalem could embolden Hamas-led opposition and push him out of power. Hamas already controls the Gaza Strip and emboldening anti-peace groups through concessions threatens to transform the West Bank into another terrorist-controlled safe haven for radical Islam. Had Abbas recognized Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state or engaged in long-term substantive direct peace talks, his limited domestic clout would have quickly evaporated. Even if Abbas wanted to lead his people to sovereignty, his hands were tied.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s position was similarly mired in domestic turmoil that could have crumbled his coalition if concessions on settlements were granted. Netanyahu’s coalition is tenuously glued together with several right-wing and religious parties, notably Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman’s Yisrael Beitenu. Leiberman is rabidly opposed to a unilateral end to settlements and his leaving the coalition would have forced Netanyahu to somehow entice opposition leader Tzipi Livni to bring her center Kadima party into the fold or call for new elections. Livni had indicated she has no intention of joining the coalition, although there have been some signals recently that suggest Kadima could be amenable to entering the Likud-led government in 2011.
While the Obama administration repeatedly attempted to engage both parties in talks, those efforts failed. The Obama administration continues to supply both Israelis and Palestinians with significant support and has not substantially altered its tactics to tie concessions to other policy proposals. Palestinians have received hundreds of millions of dollars to fuel their economy and shore-up budget shortfalls. Similarly, the U.S. gave Israel significant military support, including development of anti-missile defensive technology, and remains integral to any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Similarly, the Arab world has been largely silent on Israeli-Palestinian peace. Even though Egyptian and Jordanian leaders appeared at the White House in support of renewed negotiations, neither country has been successful garnering broader Arab support for the peace process.
Leadership from all of the relevant parties – including Israeli, Palestinian, U.S. and other Arab officials – chose to use some amount of leverage to jump start negotiations, but they all refused to make tough choices to force the peace process to continue. Netanyahu chose to maintain his right-wing positions and coalition support by refusing to compromise on settlement construction until he has firm commitments on Israeli security. That is a decision that puts Israel’s short term security beyond all else and rejects the notion that major Israeli concessions to establish a Palestinian state and therefore fulfill a key demand could be in Israel’s long-term security interests. Abbas refused to concede on his demands for a freeze on settlements as a condition for direct negotiations because he could easily be removed from power and would be relinquishing one of his only bargaining tools. Abbas chose the status quo instead of exerting leadership and rallying the population to flatly reject terrorism and engage Israel in an unconditional dialogue that could result in Palestinian sovereignty. The Obama administration chose rhetoric and similar strategies to past administrations to jump start the peace process, and those efforts, just like in past, failed. The White House decided that status quo negotiating is the best tactic to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace and did not use creative tactics to force the parties to negotiate. The Arab world did what it has always done and chose to stay on the sidelines instead of rallying public support for the peace process and investing in the Palestinian economy. After all the debate and peace process fits-and-starts, the year ended as it began. Stam.
The Flotilla: The Year of Stam‘s biggest uproar came when Israel refused entry to a Gaza bound flotilla of ships that were carrying aid (and weapons) to the Gaza Strip. Many of the ships’ passengers were harmless activists, but some terrorists on board attacked Israeli soldiers and delayed aid reaching Gaza. Israel told the activists to enter through an Israeli port to have their goods delivered, but the flotilla chose to break the embargo, which led to the needless death and injury of passengers and Israeli soldiers.
That incident led to international condemnation, further threats of Israel divestment and escalation in tension between Israel and its Muslim-world ally Turkey. Press reports immediately condemned Israel and blamed the IDF for attacking unarmed civilians before footage emerged that clearly depicted the flotilla passengers as the aggresors. Israel’s international image was further tarnished and the aid was delayed from reaching Gaza. Stam.
Iran: The Year of Stam began with fear that Iran would obtain a nuclear program and put Israel in its cross-hairs. The Iranian government has put more enrichment facilities online and neither the United States or Israel have issued a deathblow to that program. Both Israeli and U.S. ships have been stationed in the Gulf, suggesting that both countries could launch an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities, although neither country has actually gone so far as to conduct a raid. The nuclear sites are largely underground and an assault would require a substantial bombing campaign that could mandate the use of tactical nuclear weapons or bunker-buster bombs to fully eradicate the effort.
The recently leaked State Department cables also confirmed what many analysts and reports suggested – powerful Gulf countries fear Iran’s nuclear program and want international intervention to halt development of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The Saudis have even been in discussions that Israel could use Saudi airspace to launch an attack on Iranian facilities. While no attacks have been launched and the Iranian nuclear program progresses, the Stuxnet computer virus continues to hinder the Iranian nuclear program and slow the development of a nuclear weapon.
Regardless, Iran is still developing its nuclear program and no country has taken action to completely destroy that effort. For now, Iran is on course to have a nuclear weapon, just as it had been in 2009. Stam.
Other Issues: Several other issues also stagnated or brought nothing good in 2010. Captured IDF soldier Gilad Shalit remains in captivity and negotiations for his release have largely ended. A fire swept through northern Israel, killing dozens and destroying some of the most beautiful places in Israel. Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip continue to suppress speech and human rights, while also calling for a the destruction of Israel. Israeli right-wingers have attempted to undercut Israeli democracy by imposing different criteria on people based on race, such as loyalty oaths and housing restrictions. Stam.
Most unexpected event
Even though the peace process crumbled, Iran is on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons, and the world economy was on the brink of disaster, Israel succeeded in one area where nearlly all others failed.
The Israeli economy, which in the past has been decimated by high inflation, thrived in 2010. While other countries, including the United States, struggle to recover from the global recession, Israeli economist predicted that the country’s economy will grow 4.1 percent this year. Exports had plummet 12.5 percent in 2009 but dramatically rebounded and was expected to rise 13.1 percent this year. This year’s Wold Competitiveness Yearbook ranked Israel in first place for resilience to poor economic climates and number 17 for competitiveness. To climb out of the recession, the Israeli government cut interest rates, developed a stimulus package, bought government bonds and engaged in other efforts to mitigate the impact of the global financial downturn. It seems to have worked even though similar efforts around the world, including in the United States, continue to stagnate.
Person of the Year
Last year’s Person of the Year went to Shalit, whose imprisonment by Hamas led to several negotiations over his release and debate on whether an exchange of prisoners would entice terrorists to kidnap more soldiers. The Year of Stam has had no such transformational leaders. Netanyahu, Abbas, the White House and the Arab world have preferred the status quo instead of challenging long-held notions on security, the peace process and the Iranian nuclear program.
Therefore, the FPA Israel blog 2010 Person of the Year is the radical Israeli and Palestinian religious leadership, whose obstinence and hate-inducing sermons helped make 2010 the Year of Stam. On the Israeli side, you have Rabbi Yitzhak Shapira from Yitzhar who has called on Israelis to kill non-Jews who threaten the country, refuses to condemn violence against Palestinians and is a local figurehead who fuels hate in the region. You also have Rabbi Elyakim Levanon of the Elon Moreh settlement, who has attempted to bar women from participating in local elections because they must be heard only through their husbands. And who can forget the rabbis throughout Israel who called for a weakening of Israel’s democratic character by urging Jews not to rent their homes to Arabs. That’s just to name a few.
On the Israeli Arab-Palestinian side, local imams tried to skirt new policies that prevent them from inciting violence in their weekly sermons. Earlier this year on PA-controlled television, an Imam called for a genocide of the Jews. In another case, the Hamas-affiliated Sheikh Nayef Rajoub, who has led the Great Mosque in Doura outside Hebron for decades, has preached hate and was barred from giving a sermon earlier this year after his release from jail. Similarly, Sheikh Nazem Abu Salim, the chief religious leader in Nazareth, has called for a global jihad and the eradication of Israel. He was charged with incitement earlier this year, which does not even begin to reverse the years worth of hate that encourages violence and the destruction of Israel. And that’s just the tip of the iceburg.
If not for you, hate-inciting religious fanatics, 2010 might not have been the Year of Stam.
What to watch in 2011
The Year of Stam drained a year from the peace process, efforts to thwart the Iranian nuclear program and create two sovereign states, one each for Palestinians and Israelis. Nearly any successes in 2011 would immediately make it a better year than 2010. The pessimist would argue that 2011 looks just as bleak – the peace process will go nowhere and Iran will attain a nuclear weapon. That pessimist would also say to monitor Hamas and Hezbollah activity for signs that a massive war is about to erupt and that homes in the north, south and even Tel Aviv will be targeted by Israel’s neighbors. The pessimist would caution that Israel’s lackluster response to the fire suggests that Israel could see war destruction unlike it has ever encountered before, with death tolls in Tel Aviv skyrocketing.
That pessimist is thinking of the absolute worst, but there are many ways to prevent such an occurrence. Israeli, Palestinian and U.S. officials could tie the peace process to the Iran nuclear threat. That linkage is not the traditional linkage that ties any problems in the Middle East to the Arab-Israeli conflict. There are many other factors in the Middle East that fuel the Middle East’s woes more so than the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israeli, Palestinian, Arab and U.S. officials could, though, link the peace process to an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Netanyahu has regularly said that thwarting the Iranian nuclear program is his top priority. The U.S. could agree to a military strike on Iran to force concessions by all the other parties. Israel would have to immediately freeze settlement construction and agree to establishing a sovereign Palestinian state by year’s end. In exchange, the Palestinian leadership would have to crack-down on terror and engage in negotiations without threatening to pull out. The Palestinian Authority’s failure to arrest militants during this negotiations phase would allow the Israeli government to conduct its own raids to ensure Israeli security. The Saudis, who would now not have the fear of an Iranian nuclear program, would have to use their own economic and religious clout to clamp down on terror and support the Palestinian Authority. Other Arab countries – such as Syria – that continue to sponsor terrorism would be further ostracized from the Arab and Muslim world.
However, none of the parties would agree to that plan. Unless Israeli and Palestinian officials prepare to show leadership and make concessions that put prospects for peace beyond politics, the Year of Stam might have begun the Decade of Stam.
