Been spending the holidays with my 83 years young Mom so have been over eating and not blogging. I’m on my net notebook and still have not figured out how to do spell check! Sorry. Here are my thoughts on 2010.
Overview
2010 saw Afghanistan become the top defense issue as the US and NATO forces increased their forces and placed major emphasis on training Afghan security forces. The training goals are ahead of schedule and at a recent Lisbon conference NATO has agreed to partner with Afghanistan till 2014. The Obama administration still says US troop withdrawals will begin in July 2011. NATO forces have made some progress against Taliban forces but much remains to be done and Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan remain a major problem.
As for Iraq, it tooks months to form a new government after elections but they finally did it. There has been a reduction of US forces, so far levels of violence have not returned to “pre-surge levels” and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has ruled out the presence of any US troops after the end of 2011.
The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan focused public attention back to the Pacific region especially since evidence suggests North Korea was the culprit. Notice I said “public attention”. The US military has maintained a sizable military presence in the region in spite of the conflicts in Iraq and Aghanistan. The year began with the South Korean Defense Minster stating if there was a clear indication North Korea was preparing to launch a nuclear strike, South Korea would immediately launch an attack on the North. He resigned in November after being criticized as “too passive” in responding to North Korea’s artillery attacks on Yeonpyeong Island. On Monday, the South Korean President vowed retaliation against North Korea if attacked again: “We have now been awakened to the realization taht war can be prevented and peace assured only when such jprovocations are met with a strong respons.”
China’s rising Naval presence in the region have also raised concerns. As the year ends, in an article Washington Times, Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the US Pacific Command disclosed to a Japanese newspaper China has achieved an initial operational capability of an anti-ship ballistic missile that has been designed to sink aircraft carriers. Defense analysts have been aware the Chinese were developing this capability but according to the Admiral “I think China would perceive that it has an operational capability now but they continue to develop it.”
Cyber warfare and terrorism are continuing concerns but terrorist failed to launch a major 9/11 style attack and there was no cyber Pearl Harbor in 2010.
Most Unexpected Event
For me the most unexpected event was the sinking of the South Korean destroyer by the North Koreans. Tensions in the region are always hot…afterall there is still no peace treaty. There have been numerous incidents in the past but it seems to me North Korea is increasing the intensity. I suspect the North Korean leadership realizes the chance of the US or South Korea launching an unprovoked attack against them is slim to none and are doing their usual thing of create a crisis, talk trash and blame it on the other guy then back down and negotiate. And yes I understand this may be part of their preparations for the expected regime change but this type of policy can backfire and quickly escalate.
Person of the Year
General David Petraeus. He took a demotion and agreed to tackle the Afghanistan situation. I don’t know if people who are not familiar with the military really understand the significance of this. The military is an up or out institution. To agree to take a demotion and try to fix what many consider an unsolvable problem is extraordinary. He is a true American hero. I know he’s an Army guy but; the famous quote by Captain John Paul Jones comes to mind: “I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast for I intend to go in harm’s way.”
What to watch for in 2011
Watch to see how well the new Iraqi government performs and if the levels of violence increase in Iraq. NATO training efforts in Afghanistan have been exceptional but how deeply engrained is the training? Will the Afghan Security forces be able to perform as hoped? What effect will the continued corruption problems have? Will North Korea miscaluclate? Will Iran? Finally, expect the unexpected.
