Foreign Policy Blogs

Year in Review pt 1: Unexpected Events

What was the least expected event in Europe this year? Depends on your definition of unexpected. The most literal response, of course, is the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, though a study published three months before the eruption documented increased activity near the volcano. But it did not predict the category 4-level eruption that grounded European air travel for days, and the millions of Euro lost in commerce as a result. There’s a nifty map here showing the extent of the ash cloud , and an even niftier animation showing the disruption in air travel (starting with 0 flights in Western and Central Europe April 16).

If we’re talking man-made events, the LibDem-Con coalition in the UK produced by the May elections was arguably the high point for political drama in the West. While most predicted the Labour Party’s defeat, few can say they were truly prepared to see twin beds moving in to 10 Downing, least of all these two.

Another, certainly the most tragic, was the crash of a Polish air force jet carrying dozens of Poland’s political elite, including President Lech Kazsycnski and his wife. While the accident did not cause significant political instability, Russia and Poland remain at odds over the crash investigation.

But the runaway victors for least expected events were the IMF’s bailouts of Greece and Ireland. Of course, given what we now know about the state of Greek and Irish finances, one is tempted to say that the bailouts weren’t so unexpected after all. The Greek government had been cooking its books for most of the decade, while Ireland’s largest banks spent the last few years perched atop the mountain of TNT otherwise known as bad real estate loans.

Yet both countries clung to an it-can’t-happen-here attitude even as their markets continued to melt down. So when the “black angel” from Washington was finally forced to descend, both countries erupted. The Irish government was brought down, and Greek transportation unions have been calling strikes nearly every week, paralyzing much of the country.

Amid all the gloom, were there any happily unexpected events? Narrowing it down to a single moment, I’d say this one would suffice:

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