Voting is ongoing in the South Sudanese referendum to determine whether the region will separate to form its own country. Thus far the voting process itself has been by-and-large peaceful, with an almost festive atmosphere prevailing in some circles, but there have been intermittent violent clashes pitting militias against civilians along the North-South border and the death toll continues to rise.
Let’s draw a couple of assumptions. One is that the South Sudanese will indeed vote for autonomy. The other is that instability along the border will continue long after the votes are counted.
But the question that remains is whether the low intensity violence (if it is not grotesquely inapt to refer to it that way) will turn into full-on war. I tend to doubt it (and I am not alone despite the celebrity posturing) but at the same time, Khartoum has thrived on proxy violence (think of Darfur where Khartoum has maintained [barely-] plausible denial) and the concomitant threats of escalation that come with it.
This will be a delicate situation moving forward. The nexus of power resides in Khartoum but the volume of oil will reside in the South with the oil-rich contested region of Abyei sure to be at the epicenter of conflict. Meanwhile Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has promised going forward that his country will move full steam ahead toward Sharia rule if the South secedes, guaranteeing that millions of non-Muslim Sudanese will face even greater threats in the future — a daunting prospect given that up until now Sudan has not been a model for the treatment of minority populations.
