Foreign Policy Blogs

Israel's Neighbors Are Up In Arms

The Lebanese government is on the verge of collapse, as Hezbollah pulled out of the Hariri-led coalition and is poised to become a faction in the ruling party, potentially putting Israel at risk for increased terror activity in the north.

However, in Tunisia-inspired protests, the Egyptian people are now up in arms against President Hosni Mubarak, who has been a key ally for Israel in the region. While the protests focus on economic conditions and not on Egypt’s alliance with Israel, the dissent to Mubarak could have a wide-reaching impact on Israel.

Under Mubarak’s rule, the Egyptian government has helped crack-down on weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip and aided the capture of terrorists in the Sinai who intended to capture Israeli tourists. While Egypt has its own interests in keeping Sinai accessible to Israeli tourists, especially because of the money they bring to the country, the outcome of Mubarak’s Egypt have assisted Israeli security efforts.

Mubarak has faced growing opposition from the Muslim Brotherhood, a group — affiliated with Hamas — that also espouses radical Islam ideology. While the Muslim Brotherhood did not officially participate in the protests, the downfall of Mubarak would most certainly aid the organization, as it is the chief opposition movement in Egypt. Any decrease in Mubarak control of the population would inevitably provide radical Islam with new supporters that could topple the government or at least complicate any Egyptian efforts to coordinate with Israel against terror, such as limiting weapon’s smuggling to Hamas, a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Mubarak’s successor — widely believed to be either intelligence chief Omar Suleiman or Mubarak’s son — is likely to continue Mubarak’s legacy. However, the rise of anti-Mubarak sentiment and increased adherence to Muslim Brotherhood ideology could cause further unrest in Egypt. Therefore, without a firm grip on Egyptian security, Mubarak’s successor could face domestic turmoil inexperienced by his predecessor, and possibly even regime change.

A Muslim Brotherhood-led government, which would only come about through revolution, would most certainly not continue the level of coordination with Israel, if not completely rescind the peace treaty forged in the early ’80s. But even increased clout of the Muslim Brotherhood will complicate efforts to ensure Israeli security.

The Egyptian population has never been fully supportive of the treaty with Israel. Many Egyptians still view Israel as an enemy. Mubarak’s removal from office, while unlikely, would cause uncertainty on the Camp David peace accords and, potentially, create a new threat for Israel in the region.

 

Author

Ben Moscovitch

Ben Moscovitch is a Washington D.C.-based political reporter and has covered Congress, homeland security, and health care. He completed an intensive two-year Master's in Middle Eastern History program at Tel Aviv University, where he wrote his thesis on the roots of Palestinian democratic reforms. Ben graduated from Georgetown University with a BA in English Literature. He currently resides in Washington, D.C. Twitter follow: @benmoscovitch

Areas of Focus:
Middle East; Israel-Palestine; Politics

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