Probably to my discredit I have not had much to say about events in Tunisia and Egypt. Part of the reason for this is that my own work, with scant exceptions, involves sub-Saharan Africa and in part because with things happening so quickly I wanted to have something worth saying.
With regard to Tunisia I would suggest that you look here and here for sound, informed analysis. Tunisia’s relatively progressive civic culture and its relatively anodyne role in international affairs means that it was quite easy for America to get behind the concepts of public demands for freedom and democracy.
But Cairo ain’t Tunis. From an American vantage point, demands for change in Egypt will almost surely result in the Muslim Brotherhood and other unsympathetic (to the US) factions taking control. And while Hosni Mubarak may be an autocrat, he’s our autocrat. (I’m not justifying or supporting it; I’m just realpolitiking it.) Furthermore, Tunisia is an easy case for justifying public protests because it’s painless for Washington and London to support reform in Tunis. But Egypt being our autocrat means that we are dealing with the devil we know in a region where knowing the devils is immeasurably useful. My guess is that the US and our allies will remain relatively mum, not appearing to choose sides, and then will develop reactive policies to deal with the aftermath.
(By the way: can we iterate to agreement that Al-Jazeera deserves serious props these days? And while it’s out of this blog’s ambit, it looks like Yemen might be next if one believes these things can spread.)
