Last week I blogged about Human Rights, China, and National Security Policy; in light of ongoing events in Egypt I thought I would expand on those thoughts as applied to the Egyptian uprising. As I write this, President Mubarak has asked his cabinet to resign and has appointed for the first time since coming into office in 1981, a Vice President. It may prove to be too little too late. According to press reports, the demonstrators have apparently rendered the much hated police force ineffective and although the military has deployed tanks to help maintain order; it has thus far made no moves to stop the demonstrations. A news report in Al Jazeera quotes one military officer as saying that troops would “not fire a single bullet on Egyptians”. From preliminary analysis it would appear the outcome of the protests depends on whether the military chooses to support President Mubarak or the protesters.
If I had to make a call on it, I would guess considering the President’s age and reported health issues, it would be unlikely for the military to choose the President. I would suspect senior military leaders would advise him to at a minimum set up a transition plan for reforms and/or a new government. It was largely expected that President Mubarak was setting up a scenario for his son to replace him as head of Egypt. I had seen nothing to indicate that was a popular decision among the military. His son has never served as an officer in the military.
The effect of this to our national security policies in the region cannot be understated. Egypt is our most important ally in the region. Without the cooperation of Egypt it would be difficult to conduct military operations in the region. Currently the U.S. gives Egypt $1.3 Billion dollars in military assistance, second only to aid provided to Israel. Last March, Egypt’s Ambassador to the United States, H.E. Sameh Shoukry, visited the US Naval Academy. During his talk he highlighter some of the military cooperation between the two countries.
“…periodic joint training exercises that have continued for years have enhanced the interoperability and coordination between Egyptian and American armed forces. In that regard, the successive multinational “Bright Star” exercises are very beneficial to all participants as well as the US CENTCOM; as all parties train and learn to operate under challenging circumstances. Another subset of this military cooperation is the security dimension, with continued intelligence cooperation and a coordinated approach to combating the threat of extremism in the Middle East. Furthermore, the United States is provided access to vital air and sea routes through Egypt. For example, in support of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, Egypt expedited about 1300 U.S. Naval transits through the Suez Canal, and provided security support for the U.S. ships passing. This, in addition to providing over flight permission to approximately 45,000 military aircrafts. Indeed, Egypt’s importance is further accentuated as it has a coastline that extends on the Mediterranean and Red seas for almost 4,000 kilometers and controls a strategic waterway, namely the Suez Canal, being of crucial importance to international trade movement as well as strategic sea lifts.”
The bottom line is that when the U.S. has needed to expedite military forces in the Persian Gulf region, Egypt has been a major ally allowing U.S. military ships smooth quick transit through the Suez canal and military aircraft to over access to Egyptian airspace. This is no small thing.
Our bilateral military ties go back a long ways. Michael B. Oren has written an excellent book on the topic called Power, Faith, and Fantasy America in the Middle East 1176 to the Present. There were several things in the book that jumped out at me. After the Civil War at the request of the Egyptian leader, the U.S. dispatched 48 Civil War veterans (Both Union and Confederate) to help modernize the Egyptian military. They created the first Egyptian General Staff. Using U.S. and British models drafted the Egyptian Army’s first code of conduct. When they first arrived 90% of the Egyptian soldiers couldn’t read so they set up an Arabic language school. Within 3 years nearly 75% of the Army was literate.
In 1952, the CIA helped Gamal Abdul Nasser overthrow the government. In 1956, Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. As Oren states in his book, “In the eyes of the British, major shareholders in the Canal Nasser had become a second Hitler and the seizure of Suez another Anchluss.” They and the French among other things bombed the Egyptian airfields. “U.S. Spurred by romantic notions of Middle Eastern nationalism and an anticolonialist creed” sided with its Cold War enemy, the Soviet Union, over its closest allies.
The Obama administration and the Bush administration before it, has made Human Rights issues part of its Egyptian policy. As recently as January 13th during a talk in Qatar, Secretary of State Clinton addressing the Middle East as a whole state,
“.. growing majority of this region is under the age of 30. In fact, it is predicted that in just one country, Yemen, the population will double in 30 years. These young people have a hard time finding work. In many places, there are simply not enough jobs. Across the region, one in five young people is unemployed. And in some places, the percentage is far more. While some countries have made great strides in governance, in many others people have grown tired of corrupt institutions and a stagnant political order. They are demanding reform to make their governments more effective, more responsive, and more open. And all this is taking place against a backdrop of depleting resources: water tables are dropping, oil reserves are running out, and too few countries have adopted long-term plans for addressing these problems…Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever. If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum. Extremist elements, terrorist groups, and others who would prey on desperation and poverty are already out there, appealing for allegiance and competing for influence. So this is a critical moment, and this is a test of leadership for all of us.”
Think I’ll end here. As always my views are my own.
