Like many around the world, I’ve been mesmerized by the ongoing events in Egypt. Some in the media are trying to tie the events to radical Islamists and terrorist groups. I believe this is not the case and instead we are bearing witness to one of the most important civil rights movement in history. The events leading to this began in Tunisia, spread to Egypt and as I write this word has come out that Jordan’s King, Abdullah II, has fired his government in the wake of protests in his nation.
Thus far all information flowing out of Egypt indicates the protests are loosely organized and include people of all religious affiliations and men, women and children. Although there have been some reports of looting, there have been no reports of large scale rioting or destruction. Nor have there been reports of attacks on foreigners or foreign embassies. Reported Statements from the protestors have been pretty consistent essentially saying this is a movement by Egyptians for Egyptians and has happened because of economic and human rights issues. The Human Rights complaints seem to center on the activities and misdeeds of the now departed Police force.
I believe the ongoing world economic crisis has sparked a long simmering situation. During my travels in Egypt I was struck by how well read and educated most Egyptians I encountered were. Most spoke English fluently. I don’t know many Americans, myself included, who are fluent in two languages. The point of this is with access to the internet it has become easier to see what is happening around the world. A thinking educated person can’t help but compare their situation to that of others. I’m reminded of the slogan referring to American veterans returning from World War II: “How ya’ gonna keep them on the farm after they’ve seen Gay Paree?”
When you have a long simmering situation, it’s hard to predict when a situation will go from simmering to boiling over. Who would have predicted that the American Civil Rights movement would start over the refusal of a woman to give up her seat on a bus? In this instance, events in Tunisia served as the spark.
I was last in Egypt in 2007 as part of an educational exchange group. As we traveled throughout Egypt without exception, Egyptians took us aside and stressed the point that although they had problems with the U.S. foreign policy they had nothing but the utmost respect and admiration for the American people and the democratic principles we stood for. This sentiment tracks with the reports that protestors are disappointed the U.S. government has not come out strongly on the side of the protestors.
As I mentioned in my earlier blog on this topic the Egyptian military holds the key to how this will all play out. Sitting on the sidelines it’s difficult to get access to all available information. That said it would appear to me the Army is trying to walk the line between not letting the situation disintegrate into chaos and setting up an orderly transition from the Mubarak regime and showing continued support for the people. My guess is at least at present, they would like to keep the current government structure and find a candidate for President that would be acceptable to the protestors. I’ve seen no reports yet of any maneuvering by current military figures to stage a coup.
Things to look out for
Will the military continue to allow the people to protest? What happens if it turns violent? Will they intervene by firing shots at the crowd?
What part of the government is responsible for shutting down cell phones and the internet? How does this affect the way the military operates? Today’s militaries are highly dependent on the internet and cell phone service to conduct operations. What happens if some group or groups stirs up violence and it becomes necessary for military units in the area to react? Will military headquarters be able to control the situation and maintain their official vow not to fire on crowds if their communication is impaired?
So far there has been no equivalent of a Martin Luther King or Mahatma Ghandi to lead and speak for the protestors. Nobel Peace Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei appears to be the closest thing but support for his leadership does not appear to be at a level needed to speak and lead all of the protestors.
If the military cannot maintain a peaceful transition, could an organized group like the Muslim Brotherhood jump to the forefront?
Think I’ll end here. As always my views are my own.
