The cramped bathroom at this week’s Herzliya Conference sums up the Middle East situation quite nicely — Dire Straits.
The 1980s rock band has not been a major player in peace process negotiations or efforts to thwart the Iranian nuclear program, but a Dire Straits concert montage continuously streamed into the facilities immediately outside the main auditorium for the annual security conference. While standing shoulder to shoulder in the small, overcrowded bathrooms, conference goers could listen to the Knopfler brother’s guitar rifts and take a hiatus from the fatalistic pessimism of politicians determined to make News with their ruminations on regional developments, including the peace process, the Iranian nuclear threat and demonstrations in Egypt.
Experts, academics and politicians at the conference and in private round-tables held by the Middle East education organization The Israel Project broadly agreed on two main points — the region’s future is calamitous and millions of lives could end with a swift Fade to Black from both dormant and blossoming conflicts.
Decision makers and experts identified Iran’s nuclear program as the most acute threat jeopardizing Israelis and Westerners, as the radical mullahs of the Shiite state continue uranium enrichment to develop a Heavy Fuel missile that could be launched at Tel Aviv, U.S. troops in the region, Sunni Arab rivals to the Persians or Europe’s most populated cities. The enrichment of enough uranium for a devastating bomb is not So Far Away, with experts estimating that Islamic Republic’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khāmene’i could, unless thwarted, develop military nuclear capabilities as early as next year.
While military, diplomatic and intelligence-based operations could help undercut the Iranian nuclear program, stark economic sanctions akin to those previously imposed on Iraq are the preferred deterrent advocated by experts in Israel. However, the effectiveness of those economic restrictions relies on a coordinated One World effort to ensure that all countries — especially China and Russia — adhere to limits on conducting business with the Shiite state, which also funds and supplies Israel’s chief enemies Hezbollah and Hamas.
Aside from Iran, the stalled peace process remains a stark threat to the region and has resulted in distrust among Palestinian and Israeli populations On Every Street as both societies’ leaders play the lead roles in a tragic Middle Eastern reenactment of Romeo and Juliet. The two societies leaders — who privately seek renewed negotiations and have contemplated concessions, as identified in the recently released Palestine Papers — are unable to express their desire for specific compromises without threatening domestic stability by arousing dissent from houses on both sides.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is torn between his fragile right-wing coalition that could crumble if Israeli security is compromised, even though the Jewish state’s allies are hoping for a diplomatic solution instead of a Wild West End to the conflict where millions could die. Meanwhile, Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas cannot surrender his people’s demand for the right of return or sovereignty of Jerusalem, as his Hamas Brothers in Arms could gain clout and expand their foothold beyond the Gaza Strip. The terror group’s use of radical Islam provides young, impressionable and vulnerable Muslims with opportunities to honor their families and earn a Ticket to Heaven by becoming suicide bombers, thereby placing the Israeli public at the center of the war zone.
Because both Jews’ and Muslims’ holy sites in Jerusalem center on the Solid Rock atop the Temple Mount, the location where it is believed that Mohammad ascended to heaven and Abraham almost sacrificed his son, the two groups live intertwined. Separating this network of complex interwoven communities is all but impossible.
U.S. involvement in this seemingly inexhaustible and complex conflict could threaten American aid to Israel and the Palestinians, as foreign assistance cuts have been proposed by influential lawmakers attempting to capitalize on their constituents’ sentiments that they are funneling the region with Money for Nothing.
Further, Demonstrations against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who ruled with an Iron Hand, could also topple his government, as the mentality of revolt is slowly spreading throughout the Arab and Muslim world. Mubarak, once viewed as one of the untouchable Lions of the region, nearly lost his grip on the country, and several other long-standing rulers are similarly threatened. Israeli experts fear that a change in the status quo could threaten the Middle East by providing radical Islamists with new opportunities to gain clout in the Arab world and spread their messages of hate and separation from the West.
Israel is even facing domestic threats, as the Jewish ultra-orthodox community is rapidly growing, increasing the ranks of the chosen unemployed that prefer Torah study over tangible contributions to society. This Industrial Disease is taxing the country’s welfare system, which provides families with additional money per child. Unless further reforms to the system force the drains on society into the workforce, an ever smaller segment of the population will support the growing ranks of unemployed and bankrupt the country.
This Middle Eastern Walk of Life attempts to balance religion with Western ideals and navigates both internal and external threats that could result in all out war, either with Iran, radical Islamists, terror groups or even within societies. As the perils to the region mount and the status quo becomes increasingly unsustainable, Israel, the United States, Arab countries and the world as a whole face key decisions that could bring prosperity and longevity to the Middle East or shepherd in an era of tremendous jeopardy that will perpetuate an era foreshadowed by the Herzliya conference organizers — a period of Dire Straits.
