A recent meeting of 48 farm ministers in Berlin recognized that “speculation and price swings in agricultural markets may threaten food security,” and perhaps lead to violent protests that were last seen during the previous global food crisis.
In response, France, as chair of the upcoming Group of 20 meeting, will propose to regulate the “financial-agricultural” markets. According to French Agriculture Minister Bruno Le Maire,
“We don’t want to accept this speculation on agricultural commodities, which undoubtedly enriches a lot of people but which impoverishes the rest of the planet. It’s an unbearable situation for a number of developing countries who can’t handle the increase of agricultural commodity prices and find themselves confronted with the risk of food riots. We’ll see them again in 2011 or 2012 if we fail to quickly take the necessary measures.”
More than 60 food riots occurred worldwide between 2007-2009, according to a separate Bloomberg report. Factors exacerbating the situation in 2011 and 2012 are declining cereal output as well as declining subsidies by national governments.
According to the article, “global output of all cereals, including rice, wheat and corn, will drop…the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said in December. That will push global stockpiles 6 percent lower to 525 million tons, and mark the first cereal deficit since the 2008 food crisis…”
In addition, the effects have been felt throughout the world:
“Bolivia experienced protests last month over cuts in fuel subsidies that increased gasoline prices as much as 82 percent. The government pledged to use $380 million saved to boost farmers’ incomes. Malaysia’s inflation rate rose to a 19-month high in December after it reduced subsidies on fuel and sugar in an effort to narrow the budget deficit by more than half in the next five years. The government spends about 73 billion ringgit ($24 billion) a year keeping prices of gasoline, flour, sugar and other essential goods artificially low…Jordan increased public salaries and subsidies last week to counter protests over falling living standards, after riots in Tunisia toppled the nation’s ruler.”
In light of all this, a recent UK government commissioned study, the Foresight Report on Food and Farming Futures, warns that changes need to be made in the food production system, “not just to produce more food but to produce it sustainably,” according to the BBC.
The UK government’s chief scientific adviser, Professor Sir John Beddington, “commissioned the study and was among the first to warn of ‘a perfect storm’ of a growing population, climate change and diminishing resources for food production.”
“We’ve got to actually face up to the fact that this is a complicated problem which involves vastly different levels of society and we need to be persuading policy makers not to think about food in isolation…” With world population increasing to “something like 8.3 billion people” in the next 20 years, Professor Beddington warns: “We have 20 years to arguably deliver something of the order of 40% more food; 30% more available fresh water and of the order of 50% more energy.”
According to the BBC, “The Foresight Report on Food and Farming Futures says the current system is unsustainable and will fail to end hunger unless radically redesigned. It is the first study across a range of disciplines deemed to have put such fears on a firm analytical footing.”
The report also notes that “China has invested heavily in agriculture and is consequently one of the few countries to have met the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving hunger.”
Posted by Rishi Sidhu.
