A little while back I wrote the following:
Maybe winds of change are blowing inexorably across North Africa and the Middle East. But beware predictions of inevitability. Dictators have a remarkably metronomic tendency to do what it takes to protect their self interest. I would be willing to bet that if the trend of protests continues across the region we are not far from a Tiananmen moment. At some point soon police and military troops will open fire on a crowd in one of these countries. And at some point the power of the people will give way to the power of power.
I hope I am wrong. I just fear that I won’t be.
It seems that the power of power is coming to pass in Libya, Bahrain, and elsewhere. Military and police forces are cracking down ruthlessly. In Libya soldiers have killed dozens of protesters and while Bahrain might be coming back from the brink, thus far its tale is hardly an edifying one. As protesters have become emboldened and in many cases more violent so too have military forces who are likely to react with force as long as they see their interests being reflected in the power of the status quo rather than the potential of change.
Perhaps the protests will spread and grow. But I continue to warn against developing a narrative of historical inexorability in which we see winds of change blowing across the Middle East and North Africa. As long as the despots are firmly in place and control the men with the guns many of these protests are certain to meet ugly and swift fates.
