Is Zimbabwe ready for its Tunisia, Egypt, or (hopefully not) Libya moment? Trevor Ncube, the proprietor of M&G Media, owner of the Mail & Guardian, and publisher of Zimbabwean newspapers The Standard, The Zimbabwe Independent, and NewsDay thinks the time might just be right. A Zimbabwean, understandably writing under the cloak of anonymity in The Mail & Guardian’s “Thought Leader,” (score one for an open, vibrant media culture in South Africa!) is skeptical.
My own view (I am working on a piece on this subject so I’m going to try not to scoop myself) leans more toward the anonymous Zimbabwean. The contagion metaphor might be tempting, but it is far too early if events in North Africa really do indicate a coming tidal wave, and circumstances in Zimbabwe are simply different from those in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. Think, for example, that the masses will run into opposition from other masses, namely the so-called “war veterans” who have hardly shown an aversion to violence.
