After weeks of protests fueled by the success stories of Tunisia and Egypt, Yemen’s youth Movement is starting to get attention from the political class.
If the President tolerated a somewhat open criticism of his rule and his legitimacy and did not attempt like in Libya to exert a sadistic crackdown on the opposition; he did not expect for his intricate webs of support to collapse from beneath him.
Over recent days, Yemen has been the scene of a shift of power. However, if those who retain political control are positioning themselves against Ali Abdullah Saleh; does it necessarily mean that the pro-democracy activists are winning?
A shift in Alliances
For the past decades, Yemen President has been able to remain in power through his ability to retain the Tribes’ loyalty and support. Essentially, this manifested itself by monetary incentives and governmental positions.
However, since the depletion in Mineral Resources of the country and the chronic mismanagement of State Funds has led the country to the brink of financial meltdown; the President had to downgrade some of the Tribes “alliance” budget.
Now, with the anti-government movement gaining momentum throughout the country, many Sheikhs and political figures are starting to wonder whether it is wise to be seen on the Regime’s side. Since two presidencies have been toppled over the course of a few months, nobody wants to dismiss the possibility of a third in Yemen.
The most significant blow to Mr. Saleh’s hold on power was caused by the resignation from the People’s Congress (Presidential Political Party) of Sheikh Al-Ahmar. He announced his decision to leave the Party at a rally in Amran Province, in which the main Tribes were present: the Bakhil and Hashid.
So far, it was of common knowledge that Al-Ahmar’s clan was against the rule of the President. However, never before was their claim to depose him so virulent and outspoken. It is also important to note that they are the Tribal Chiefs of the Hashid and in that respect, they convey much political influence and power.
On the heels of this “defection”, came the announcement of the resignation of Mohamed Abdel Illah Al-Qadi, a leader of the Sanhan tribe, also a member of the Hashid. Being from the same tribe as the President, Al-Qadi’s move was said to be a reflection of the deep dissensions from within.
To make matters worse, Abdel-Mageed Al-Zindani, a powerful sheikh and religious Cleric, decided to join in with the crowd of protesters and to lend them his unconditional support.
In a last attempt to rally support to his cause, President Saleh organized a meeting last week, where about $93,000 were distributed as a show of appreciation, to the tribal chiefs.
He even went as far as to propose a “Unity” Government in which the Opposition would hold ministerial seats.
However, conscious of their power and being adamant that the President had to leave, the people declined the offer.
In between the South Separatist Movement in Aden and the mounting opposition in the North, the Regime seems rather doomed.
What about Democracy?
When the demonstrations started several weeks ago in the country, there were mostly organic and without real leadership or political agenda.
Now that political figures such as Sheikh Mohamed Abulahoum or Hussein Al-Ahmar have joined in with the anti-government protesters, things might take a different turn.
Realistically, it would be difficult for the popular movement alone to force out the decades long President. Unlike Egypt, where seas of people flooded the street in protest, Yemen has seen as lesser backing of its population. This is mainly explained by the fragmentation of the society into tribes, and the harsher terrain which render travel to big cities difficult. The fact that the Internet is also less widespread than in other Arab countries, makes it all the more difficult to manage a cohesive movement.
The tribal chiefs are leading in that aspect a vital role. Through their financial and manpower assistance they are giving a new dimension to this social uprising.
However, if those men seem so far to be on the side of the people, one has to realize that it is by pure opportunism rather than a real longing for Democracy.
If Ali Abdullah Saleh was indeed to resign, he would leave on his wake a very fragmented Yemen, which could sink into regional conflicts, rendering the State powerless.
In my opinion, Yemen stands a greater chance at Democracy if a Federal type of Government is set in place. It would allow the South and other regions to retain some independence and fair representation as well as allow the country to function as a single entity.
