With ongoing protests raging against the Yemeni government and no clear end in sight; many feel uncertain about the future.
If most do not approve of the current regime, the idea that “better the devil you know, than the one you don’t” is deeply rooted within the minds.
Ali Abdullah Saleh has been posing for so many decades as the only force able to unite the different factions and regions of Yemen, that the specter of civil war seems attached to his departure.
Although this fear mongering was the very tactic that helped the President retains his political power for so long, this argument is not without truth.
Yemen’s unity depends so far entirely on the Sheikhs’support, without it, the country would be divided in myriads of tribal controlled territories. The other issue is as well the lack of partisan political awareness.
Al Islah
Al Islah party or Yemeni Congregation for Reform is the official party of the Opposition, with the People’s congress being the Presidential Party. Although the only entity to be counter-balancing an otherwise one party country; Al Islah is far from being united. Rather than sharing a common political vision, its members are an eclectic gathering of those opposed to the President’s regime. There are 3 main factions:
Given that the party has never really been in charge of the decision making process, nobody really knows how well it will perform and whether it will manage to lead efficiently; and not splinter in many directions.
The presence of Al-Zindani, who according to the US is believed to have ties with the terrorist group Al Qaeda could potentially become a worry as far as the democratization of Yemen goes. Despite the cleric’s latest rant on the role of women in society and his declaration of having found a cure for AIDS, he still commands a strong following.
Very much like the Salafists, the Muslim Brotherhood would like to see the Constitution of Yemen more entrenched in Islamic tradition, which would on many levels contradict with the current pre-democracy movement.
At this point it is important to explain that if men such as Al-Zindani or Qahtan have found a complacent ear amongst the population, it has a lot to do with the fact that Yemen’s culture is Islamist. Hidden away by its mountains for so many centuries, this country has not been exposed to other cultures or influences like the more secular south, which lived through decades of communism. Islam has so far been the only reference. Therefore it is no wonder why most men with a political agenda have used the Quran to create a base of supporters.
As far as Al-Ahmar family goes, even though it wields a strong influence over the Hashid tribe, it would be very doubtful to see Hussein or Hamid rise to the presidency. Too many people feel that with President Saleh being a member, it is time for the tribe to take a step back from power.
The Socialists
The Socialists Party is still quite popular in South Yemen as it reminds many of an independent past. However, its inability to really make a mark in the political landscape of Yemen and the lack of clear leadership does not bode well for its future.
The simple fact that the party has been unable to claim ownership of the Separatist Movement proves without a doubt that Aden has moved beyond its leftist heritage.
What the future holds
In order for Yemen to become a stable and thriving nation, a few lessons from the past need to be learned. The first thing is that autocracy will not; and most importantly should not be tolerated anymore. The second is that no President should assert his power by “buying off” tribal chiefs. Although effective on the short term, it does nothing for the cohesiveness of the country. The Government has to develop a nationalist sentiment rather than cultivate a regional allegiance. The third is that only by a fair representation of the country’s various ethnicities, will a government bring stability.
So far, only one name comes to mind: Mohamed Abulahoum.
