While the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s (AKP’s) record on democracy and foreign policy is less than perfectly in accord with European or U.S. preferences, the Turkish opposition has often appeared even worse, given its chauvinistic nationalism, shortsightedness, and anti-Western views. Signs indicate, however, that this dynamic is changing. Since taking over as chair of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in May 2010, Kemal Kilicdaroglu has revamped the party. Still, it is unclear how successful the new CHP will be in the June 2011 parliamentary elections.
After becoming party leader, Kilicdaroglu began to transform the CHP from its previous ossified state into a dynamic, social democratic movement. In the process, he has pushed the party toward adopting a strong pro-Western stance, in contrast to the AKP’s foreign policy, which is focused largely on religion-based alliances in the Middle East. In a recent interview with Turkish Policy Quarterly, Kilicdaroglu said, “The new CHP is committed to the goal of Turkey’s accession to the EU.” He set this position against that of the AKP, which, he said, “does not feel at home as a member of the Euro-Atlantic community.”
While these changes in the CHP may be interpreted as a move toward social democratization, critics argue that the party’s new technocratic and academic leadership resembles more a panel of experts than a grassroots political machine ready to connect with the masses.
Nonetheless, public opinion surveys conducted following Kilicdaroglu’s election initially showed the CHP leadership change to be well received. A May 2010 poll conducted by the Istanbul-based SONAR organization showed the CHP to be Turkey’s most popular party for the first time since the AKP’s 2002 victory — albeit by the slender margin of 32 percent to 31 percent for the AKP. In another poll, conducted in the same month by MetroPoll, 63 percent of respondents declared their support for the change in CHP leadership. Furthermore, following the election of Kilicdaroglu as CHP party chairman, 22.5 percent of respondents who had never previously voted for the CHP claimed they would back the CHP for the first time in future elections.
In the longer run, the CHP may indeed provide Turkey with a social democratic, pro-Western alternative to the present leadership, but it will likely struggle to transmit its message clearly enough and gather sufficient grassroots strength to unseat the AKP in the June 2011 elections.
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This is an excerpt from a recent op-ed co-written by the author, published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. You can access the full text at:
http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3343
