The Following piece is written by a Yemeni-based journalist who writes for Foreign Policy Association (FPA) and, due to serious security concerns, remains anonymous.
Cartoon Courtesy of Aljazeera.Net
Only a few days after having had its offer rejected by the embattled Yemeni President, the GCC is putting together a new proposal. Although some might describe the attitude of the Persian Gulf countries towards their unruly neighbor altruistic, one would have to remember that 3 Million barrels of petrol are passing through Yemen everyday.
In other words, the Yemeni crisis is putting the oil industry in jeopardy and that is something the GCC will not put up with, hence the political dance.
The GCC proposal
Actually this “new proposal” is not so different from the first one. As previously suggested, Ali Abdullah Saleh would hand over his power to the Vice-President and the opposition would form a new cabinet of its choice. The newly formed government would then be responsible for organizing the new presidential and parliamentary elections. So far nothing original. In exchange for his “cooperation” Saleh would be granted along with his family members, financial and legal immunity.
If you look at the situation from a practical stand point it is actually quite clever. Not only is the GCC recognizing that the Yemeni President is holding on to power by fear of reprisals, but also it does not want to set a dangerous precedent. If Saleh was to be prosecuted and declared guilty of wrong doings, it could give a new dimension to the Arab Revolution. And whether or not the Gulf leaders agree with Saleh’s policies, they certainly will not be the ones to condemn him.
Presidential Statement
“In compliance with statements made several times before….the President has no reservation against transferring power peacefully and smoothly within the framework of the Constitution…” This was in essence the statement released today by the presidential palace in regard to the GCC proposal.
But what does “within the framework of the Constitution” really mean? Well it could lead to 2 scenarios:
In any case, the statement fell short of announcing clearly whether the GCC proposal in within the realm of the possible. Very much like in Libya , everything is still up in the air.
The Opposition
Najib Ghaniem, who is a senior member of the Islah party said: “We are only interested in the end to the agony of our people…” It is believed that Ali Mohsen, the defected General and also a member of the political party is sharing this view.
Actually, most members of the Opposition believe that it is time for Yemen to put a stop to the blood bath and enter a negotiation phase with the regime. You have to understand that those men are astute politicians, not idealists. They understand the reality of the situation; it would be foolish for them to believe that a power veteran such as Saleh would simply step down and allow his countrymen to prosecute him and his family.
The Youth Movement
The Youth Movement has rejected the GCC proposal, claiming that no negotiation would take place as long as Saleh remained President of Yemen. They believe that by continuing their protests across the nation they will eventually force the regime out. They want to see the President and his relatives prosecuted and condemned for what they call the “looting” of Yemen. It is widely believed that the personal fortune of the President amounts to several Billions of US Dollars.
Despite the recent bloodshed and the threat of more to come, those young men and women are determined to see this revolution through.
However noble the aspirations of the Youth Movement, I fear that this thirst for justice might lead Yemen towards a never-ending civil war, similar to that of Libya.
It has become quite evident that Saleh will not relinquish power as long as the threat of reprisals against his person or his closest relatives is present. At this point it would be best to look for a political solution rather than explore military avenues. An open conflict would only destabilize this already fragile nation and it could lead to the materialization of America’s worst fears: a resurgence in Al Qaeda’s activities.
I believe that the best way to honor those who died defending Freedom and Democracy would be to build a strong and fair society; and not by looking for revenge. Besides, to be perfectly honest, if Yemen was to make every person linked to cases of corruption stand trial, I wonder if many politicians would be left standing.
