Getty Images. President Medvedev, left, and Prime Minister Putin on a skiing trip last year.
As the 2012 Russian presidential election draws near, there has been a buzz of speculations and a flurry of possible scenarios floating in the press as to who will run in the election and most importantly be the next Russian president. Though incumbent Dmitri Medvedev has not officially announced his bid for a re-election although he said he might run – many expect this as a given. The Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has not stated out right that he is intent on running either, but a day later said he might oppose Medvedev in the race. Putin must have his reasons and according to the New York Times he thinks that announcing the candidates outright might paralyze the government.
Geoffrey T. Smith of the Wall Street Journal believes that there is no chance that Putin will run against Medvedev, because the two are political intimates and long time partners, just as this would be unusual anywhere else in the world. In the same vain, as quoted in the Voice of Russia, president of the Effective Policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovsky is sure that only one from the Medvedev-Putin tandem will run for president:
“Either Medvedev or Putin will take part in the election race, so a choice of candidate within the party of power won’t be a problem. Even though there is no consensus to this effect in the press, only one will run, as required by the current concept. If the two fail to come to agreement, which is highly unlikely, the situation will follow quite a different scenario. A third candidate may come onto the scene. But this would undermine the unity of the ruling tandem.”
Yuri Mamchur of the Russia Blog, on the other hand, believes that both Medvedev and Putin will run, with Putin winning the presidency largely due to his popularity literally fueled by the fortuitous circumstances brought on by high oil prices and relative stability of the last 11 years.
Russian political analyst Irina Khakamada offers another scenario:
“There can be three options. First, Medvedev runs for president by agreement with Putin, Putin remains prime minister to keep the main financial flows under control. Second, the two agree that Putin will run, so Medvedev gets a good position in the government. Third, both go to the polls to attract more public interest and to demonstrate that there is democracy in Russia.”
Meanwhile, United Russia recently backed Putin as its candidate for the 2012 presidential election. According to the Telegraph, Yuri Shuvalov, the deputy head of the party’s ruling council said the following:
“As for the party’s position on the 2012 elections, United Russia will orient itself on its leader Vladimir Putin. We are looking primarily at his candidacy when deciding the question of nominating a candidate from our party for the presidential elections.”
Not to be outdone, according to Russia Today, the Prime Minister recently retorted that party members would be better off concentrating on their current work and the upcoming elections to the State Duma, which are due to take place in December 2011.
In terms of the approval ratings, Putin and Medvedev are neck to neck (the latter’s popularity has risen a few points since last year). The registration of presidential candidates is due to start in five months, but there is still no concrete information regarding who will run. To some, it is even less certain who will win, but something tells me to always bet on Putin.
