Just heard a news flash that DNA results have confirmed that the man Navy Seals killed last night in Pakistan is indeed Osama Bin Laden. That should cover any lingering doubts for most people. I say most because there are still some people who don’t believe Adolf Hitler committed suicide on April 30, 1945. Just a brief recap, in August 2010 the intelligence community got a lead that Osama Bin Laden was hiding out I in plain sight in a compound in a major population area near the Pakistani equivalent of West Point. Yesterday, apparently satisfied that enough “dots” had been connected, President Obama authorized a raid by a couple of dozen Navy Seals who were transported to the area from Afghanistan in 4 helicopters. After a 40 minute firefight, Bin Laden was killed by a shot in the head. Thus ends a 10 year effort by the intelligence community to locate him so he could be brought to justice.
Thought I’d pass on my thoughts. First it emphasizes to me that those of us sitting on the sidelines should be very careful with criticisms of the intelligence community and national security officials to include of course the President. I’ve blogged about this before but it bears repeating. We simply do not have access to all of the information that the President and his team are receiving. The intelligence community collects a huge amount of information. Consider this, on March 2nd of this year the Navy sponsored its second Navy Information Day. The Navy pointed out it took two centuries to fill the Library of Congress with:
– 29 million books and periodicals
– 2.4 million recording
– 29 million photographs
– 2.4 million maps
– 29 million manuscripts
In today’s intelligence environment that much information is generated every 5 minutes. Because the terrorists heavily depend on the internet and social media that stuff has to be looked at as well. Testifying before Congress on February 16th, CIA Director Leon Panetta says there are 600 million Facebook accounts, 190 million twitter, and 35,000 hours of You Tube that is upgraded everyday. It is not impossible to provide the decision makers with “actionable” intelligence but it is always a challenge. According to news report when President Obama gave the go ahead for the attack, the intelligence community could not say for certain that Bin Laden was in the building.
The challenge of the intelligence community is to sift through all of this and put together the pieces of a puzzle. Then you have to get the information into the hands of the decision makers in the time and format they need to make their decisions. Seldom will you have enough information to be 100% certain. Which brings me to my next point; President Obama made a very gutsy call. According to news reports, one of the plans under considering was using B-2 aircraft to bomb the building. Apparently that was rejected because it would be hard to verify the strike had killed Bin Laden. To decide instead to use Special Forces who had to fly into the heart of Pakistan and enter a building that they didn’t know if Bin Laden was still there and if he was where was he in the building….gutsy. Remember what happened when the U.S. tried a similar mission to rescue Americans being held hostage by the Iranians during President Carter’s administration.
I’m not saying the media should never criticize, simply make sure you do your research and stick to what you know. If you’re making an educated guess or have incomplete information, you need to say so. I remember General Colin Powell said what he wanted from an intelligence professional was to tell him what you knew, tell him what you don’t know and then tell him what was the significance of what you didn’t know. I was taught similar guidelines during my time in the military as an intelligence professional.
The last point I’d like to make is that this was an effort of the entire intelligence community which includes many in their late teens and early 20’s. The media spends a lot of time saying the intelligence community does not share information. I’ve said before and will probably say again there is actually quite a lot of information that is shared. That is part of the problem I mentioned earlier when discussing the large amounts of data the intelligence community collects. Check the web sites of the 16 intelligences agencies (17 if you count the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) and you’ll get a good idea of who collects what types of information. For a really good read on how all of this works, I suggest Jeffrey T. Richelson’s book The US Intelligence Community. It’s the best book I’ve read on the topic.
Bin Laden’s death does not end the war on terror. There is still a considerable threat out there. Testifying before Congress this past March, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, General Ronal Burgess stated:
“Before moving on from the discussion of Afghanistan, it is fitting that I discuss al- Qaida’s senior leadership. On Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan, the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) safe havens continue to enable militant groups targeting Pakistan and Afghanistan, including the Taliban and al-Qaida. Sustained counterterrorism pressure since 2008 has resulted in the deaths of dozens of al-Qaida and other militant leaders although the networks continue to operate, exploiting unpopular actions by Islamabad through targeted propaganda…Despite setbacks, al-Qaida persistently shows it can recruit, train, and deploy operatives and stay in contact with external networks. It exports its terrorist agenda, and plans, supports, and directs attacks against the United States and Europe, in addition to broader Western interests.”
One final point. I live in a very liberal Colorado town. Many folks who voted for President Obama have complained to me because he didn’t immediately bring home the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. I always point out no matter what a candidate says before he or she assumes office, they do not have a complete picture of all the national security mind fields out there. War can break out in may locations on any given day. Once the new folks assume office and get briefed up on all of the threats, I suspect it’s a real eye opener. The issue then is how they want to approach the various problems. Do they want to continue down the path of their predecessor? Do they come up with a new plane? Do they wash their hands and walk away? Much has bee written about President Obama’s decision to heavily use armed drones going after terrorist leaders.
Think I’ll end for now. As always my views are my own.
