The death of the most wanted Islamic militant – a soft spoken, bearded man – came ten years after his most audacious and deadly terrorist act.
His killing in a special forces operation placed a giant question mark over the future of the insurgency he had led, but lent an equally big boost to the President’s ratings. And although he ordered the murder of countless innocent people through bombings and plane hijackings, many Muslims continue to regard him as a resistance hero who singlehandedly defied an arrogant, expansionist and aggressive superpower.
Bin Laden? Try Shamil Basayev: the Chechen rebel leader and mastermind behind Russia’s worst terrorist acts (Beslan, the Budennovsk hospital siege, the Moscow Theatre Siege, the subway bombings, and the simultaneous plane hijackings).
The 2006 killing of Russia’s most wanted man may hold some sobering lessons for America in the aftermath of Bin Laden’s liquidation.
Looking at the number of terrorist attacks before and after Basayev’s death, the US has few reasons to relax.
Though the Chechen rebels have to this day been unable to replace Basayev with a leader of similar calibre, the 5 years since his death have seen at least 9 deadly and high profile terrorist attacks, including the recent bombing at Domodedovo airport.
However, the nature of Russia’s caucausus insurgency has changed. Dagestan and Northern Ossetia have replaced Basayev’s native Chechnya as the centres of rebel activity. Also, terrorist acts have become more decentralised and decoupled from specific political demands.
If Russia’s experience is any guide, Bin Laden’s death may have dispersed Al-Qaeda’s command, but not its capacity for future violence.
