As I stated in my last article, Egypt is trying to showcase its apparently rejuvenated power and strength by facilitating Palestinian reconciliation. I personally believe it is a PR move. However, if Egypt wants to prove its might is legitimate, it should find a way to return Gilad Schalit to Israel. No individual, political party, or nation has managed to secure the release of Schalit…such a feat would be quite impressive.
Outside of proving its strength, Egyptian ability to give Israel back one of its lost sons would be an incredible display of international relations know-how. First, it would temporarily relax those who believe the Egyptian government is regressing to its days of old under Nasser. Second, Egypt would virtually overnight, become a dominant force in the Muslim-Arab world. Even Turkey, which before the Arab Spring was on its way to being the most powerful and influential player in the region, was unable to successfully bargain the release of the kidnapped corporal. Third, it would put what I call “positive pressure” on Israel to provide a gesture of goodwill towards the peace process. Positive pressure is pressure created from a positive event, such as the return of Gilad Schalit. “Negative pressure” would be pressure created from something like a threat or an ultimatum.
Though Bibi Netanyahu is a crafty statesman and politician, this could make or break the Israeli prime minister. Many believe he is a major reason for what could possibly be an all-time low in peace negotiations, and the international community questions his sincerity for wanting peace. If he were to agree to perhaps doing something like loosening the blockade of Gaza, releasing a few high profile Hamas prisoners, and possibly putting a short-term freeze on settlement building, he still might be able to transform from demonized rightist to beloved reformer, a la Yitzchak Rabin and Ariel Sharon. A loosening of the blockade is by no means ideal, but it is it better than, say, the release of 1,000 Hamas prisoners. If the Palestinian unity deal does hold, it will also be important to make a gesture to the West Bank, such as a settlement freeze. If Gaza later proves untrustworthy, Israel can simply go back in time and re-institute the blockade while not having given up anything unreasonable. You have to give a little to get a little.
Gilad’s capture was a tragedy in a bungled war that saw too many Israeli soldiers unnecessarily killed. Corporal Schalits release would provide a certain closure for those directly affected by the war, as well as give a much-needed injection of optimism to the Israeli public. If Egypt is able to pull this off, I will for a short while at least, be impressed and reserve judgment on its future.
