It has been a little more than one year since the street protests which rocked Bangkok and resulted in at least 50 deaths took place in the heart of the Thai capital. After stalling for months since the unrest when he had announced a reconciliatory roadmap for the main political parties with elections to follow soon after, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva finally dissolved the House of Representatives this past week and scheduled elections for July 3rd. Emotions typically run high within Thailand’s political establishment every election cycle but sentiments seem to be ever more violent in 2011 than in years past. Just this past week there was an assassination attempt on Pracha Prasopdee, the former Pheu Thai MP from Samut Prakan and a supporter of the “Red Shirt” United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) movement, the organizers of the 2010 protests. The attempt on Mr. Prasopdee’s life comes on the heels of an announcement by Red Shirt leaders that they would be mobilizing up to 1,000 supporters from the northern cities of Chiang Mai, Lampun, and Lampang to travel to the capital to stage a mass rally at Ratchaprasong intersection, site of the government’s deadly crackdown on protesters last year.
There are several political parties in Thailand but only two mainstream ones: Prime Minister Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party, and the opposition Pheu Thai party, a reincarnation of the People’s Power Party – dissolved due to electoral fraud – and bankrolled by leader-in-exile Thaksin Shinawatra. Shinawatra, who was deposed in a coup in 2006 which served as the impetus for the Red Shirts’ demonstrations, is widely seen as the only figure within Pheu Thai capable of unseating Vejjajiva. In recent weeks, Shinawatra has engaged Pheu Thai politicians and supporters at party meetings and conferences as they venture to set a strategy for capturing the 251 seats needed to garner a majority in the House (election to the Thai Senate is done differently; there are 150 seats open, but only half are directly elected with the other half being appointed by the central government). Shinawatra has had to address the Pheu Thai establishment by way of telecommunicating using Skype from his residence in Dubai, as he was convicted in abstentia on five counts of corruption while Prime Minister and refuses to return to the country. Shinawatra has maintained that the charges brought up against him were politically motivated. A recent article in the Bangkok Post revealed that in an internal survey conducted by Pheu Thai, none of the party’s candidates for the position of Prime Minister – including Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra – would be able to lead a coalition government successfully. Invariably, the government would be unable to stand and new elections would have to be called for.
Thus, Thailand’s fragile political system hangs in the delicate balance. Underscored by weak governments, military coups, and, recently, popular uprisings, the 2011 elections represent a critical point in Thailand’s political development. Both major parties have the capabilities to organize mass protest rallies should they take issue with the electoral results. It was, after all, the Democrat Party supported “Yellow Shirt” People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) who took to the streets in protest in 2008 and were able to shut down Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Bangkok. The PAD has since split with the Democrats and formed their own party. It will be interesting to see how the losing side reacts to electoral defeat. Perhaps spurred on by the Arab Spring and other recent developments in the Mideast, they could once again take to the streets to express their dissatisfaction which would doubtless effectuate an even more chaotic political climate. Perhaps exhausted from the turmoil of the last five years, they could choose to passively accept the results. The vote should also be able to accentuate the class struggle and ever growing divide between the “Bangkok elite” and primarily Democrat supporters, and the rural constituencies who favor the more populous Pheu Thai. And then there is the unknown variable that is Thaksin. With myriad plots and subplots, you can be sure the international community will be keeping an eye on Thailand over the next few weeks.
