It was all but certain that Dominique Strauss-Kahn planned to step down from the IMF this summer to declare his candidacy for president in next spring’s elections. It was also all but certain he would emerge as the Socialist frontrunner against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. Now that these assumptions have been mooted, the Socialist party has mobilized to find someone with the stature to knock Sarkozy out.
Francois Hollande
For now, the principal socialist candidates are Francois Hollande, a representative in the Natioanl Assembly; and Martine Aubry, party chairman, and Hollande’s immediate succcessor. Four years ago, Hollande’s then-wife, Segolene Royal, ran for president (the two divorced immediately after her defeat). Royal’s name is occasionally mentioned alongside the latter two, but she has done little to boost her credibility in the preceding four years. Aubry has yet to formally announce her candidacy, and she may yet decline to do so if she believes Hollande can win. If she believes she would stand a better chance, the Socialists will face the same problems of competing personal ambitions that have kept them out of the Elysee for the past 20 years.
Complicating matters for the Socialists is the renewed vitality of the National Front in the form of Marine LePen, daughter of party founder Jean-Marie LePen. Her policy proposals mirror those of other high-profile far-right European ministers: anti-immigration, anti-Eurozone and anti-Corporate. France may also finally be ready for a female president after five years under a leader who embodies the country’s worst fears about runaway machismo.
Marine LePen
Since DSK had not yet formally announced his candidacy, French polls still provide an accurate snapshot of where things currently stand. As it turns out, the snapshot shows a dead heat between Sarkozy, either Socialist candidate and LePen. In polls where DSK was a candidate, he wins in a landslide — underscoring how monumental his arrest has proven for French politics.
