It was not easy being Sergei Bagapsh – the late, gregarious and moderate Abkhazian leader trapped between Georgia’s gun-sights and Russia’s self-serving, smothering embrace: even his last name suggests an exhalation of frustration.
But it will be even harder to find a successor able enough to lead the tiny, mostly unrecognised country towards territorial security and international acceptance.
Avid chess-player Bagapsh was a consummate strategist who managed to steer Abkhazia, however imperfectly, between Georgian irredentism and Russian encroachment without resorting to ugly nationalism or (even more difficult considering the help Abkhazia received from Russia) Kremlin stoogery.
He also ably navigated domestic politics by keeping opponents at bay through compromise and deal-making; despite winning an election whose results were not accepted by his main challenger, Bagapsh preferred to co-opt Raul Khadjimba into a coalition rather than risk violence. By all accounts, Bagapsh was also a nice guy: a warm and easygoing man who readily forgave his opponents and whose political struggle against Georgia did not prevent him from marrying into a Georgian family; former Georgian president Shevardnadze said he respected Bagapsh despite the politics.
Unfortunately, the country’s second most popular figure, opposition leader Raul Khadjimba, does not seem so likely to maintain Bagapsh’s finely calibrated balance were he to win the upcoming elections. By contrast to Bagapsh’s restraint both towards ally Russia and enemy Georgia, Khadjimba is both much more pro-Russian (a quality that ended his previous presidential hopes when he was criticised for being bank-rolled by Putin) and anti-Georgian.
It is this last quality that would be so unfortunate in a future Abkhaz leader: at a time when Georgian president Saakashvili is on the ropes, now is precisely the moment for Abkhazia to engage the Georgian opposition and push for a new, moderate and peaceful leadership in Tbilisi.
Any nationalist, anti-Georgian stance would only empower the intransigent status-quo and prolong Abkhazia’s misery. Likewise, too heavy reliance on Russia would only lend credibility to Saakashvili’s constant paranoia about ‘Russian agents’ behind every opposition and protest actions. It’s the most difficult way, but Abkhazia’s new leader would be wise to continue Bagapsh’s subtle and uneasy balancing act.
