If, as the report prepared for the U.S. Agency for International Development estimated, the death toll resulted from Haiti’s January 10 earthquake was between 46,000 and 85,000, many people wonder where Haitian leaders found the additional 231,000 bodies in their revised figures of 316,000 published earlier this year on the anniversary of the devastating earthquake.
According to the Associated Press (AP), a report commissioned by the U.S. government contradicts previous claims circulated in the media by the U.N. International Organization for Migration (IOM). Statistical sampling from the most devastated areas around the capital claimed that no more than 85,000 people died from the tragedy. Further estimates also dramatically reduced the number of people moved into makeshift tents from 1.5 million to 895,000 and those still living under tarps and in tents from 680,000 to 375,000. Estimates of 20 million cubic meters of debris reported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also saw further reductions. Less that half that amount is accurate, concluded LTL Strategies, a Washington consulting firm commissioned by USAID to conduct the report.
Face-to-face interviews conducted by the firm in nearly 5,200 homes around the capital’s most populated areas helped determined the new estimates, according to the news report. Interviewing teams asked more than 100 questions, such as how many people died in each building and where the survivors went, indicated the AP.
While Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the IOM concluded LTL Strategies’ methodology was powerful, he maintained the census conducted by his organization were accurate. “We are 100 percent confident that the people we counted are living in the camps,” Doyle told the AP, justifying his findings challenged by the report.
Haitian officials declined to discuss the report authored by anthropologist Timothy T. Schwartz since they have not seen it, they said. However, a copy obtained by the AP and faxed to ex-Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive received no immediate response. The Haitian government never made its methodology public, though its estimates were specific.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Preeti Shah admitted there were internal consistencies in the report’s own finding, preventing its release. “We are reviewing these inconsistencies… to ensure the information we release is accurate,” she told the Associated Press. It is unclear, however, if the revisions will cause significant changes in numbers published in the first draft of the report. Shah did not elaborate on these possibilities with the AP. Meanwhile, questions about billions pledged by international donors based on the previous figures linger on.
