Last Thursday the Syrian Presidential Guard, led by President Assad’s brother, approached the Turkish border, causing a brief standoff between the two countries’ armed forces. As hundreds more Syrian refugees crossed the border, Turkey opted to move back its patrols slightly, avoiding direct engagement. The encounter epitomizes the now omnipresent threat that an already tenuous relationship will erupt. By allowing the steady stream of displaced Syrian citizens into its borders, Turkey has taken a firm stand against a neighbor with whom it has only just patched up relations. With the refugee count now in the tens of thousands, many wonder just how long the current détente will hold.
The brief positive relationship between Syria and Turkey occurred rapidly after political changes in both countries at the beginning of the millennium. In just several years, between 2002 and 2009, Bashir al Assad and Turkey’s newly elected Islamist government, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), signed almost 50 agreements of cooperation. (Indeed Turkey’s new government took strides in connecting with all its Middle Eastern neighbors.) The creation of joint counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency pacts followed, and today Turkey is Syria’s most significant trading partner.
Despite the rapid improvements in relations over the past decade, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quick to condemn Assad’s recent actions in the country. Proving actions speak louder than words, Turkey has openly accepted the steady flow of citizens fleeing the Syrian army’s advances. Recent reports from Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Agency say the number of Syrians occupying camps in Turkey is now over 11,000, though the Turkish Red Crescent reportedly puts the number around 30,000.
There is perhaps a greater political ramification: the new wave of refugees brings Turkey directly into the Arab Spring. Yet what is Turkey’s role, given its interlocked position between Europe and the Middle East? According to the Refugee Council, Turkey is historically seen as a “holding ground” for refugees attempting to enter Europe. Indeed, many liberal European papers fear that this perception of Turkey as a “melting pot” has contributed to delays with its European Union membership. It is often argued that France and Germany, who both oppose Turkey’s bid for accession, consider Turkey to be more Middle Eastern than European. Indeed Turkey has been toeing a line between bids to enter the E.U. and playing a leading role in the Middle East.
On April 21st, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul published an Op-Ed article in the New York Times. Entitled, “The Revolution’s Missing Piece,” President Gul argued that the promise of the recent uprisings depends on the international community brokering a just solution to the Palestinian question. Interestingly, he wrote, “history has taught us that demographics is the most decisive factor in determining the fate of nations.” If this is true, how will the recent influx of Syrians impact Turkey’s dealings with its neighbor to the south? On a broader scale, what will be the ramifications of Turkey’s response to the Arab Spring? Its role as a broker in Middle Eastern conflicts versus its bid to join the E.U. will certainly be an issue in the weeks and months to come. Given Turkey’s response to Syrian refugees so far, it is clear that Turkey intends to play a role in the Arab Spring.
