I woke today to media reports that 15 American soldiers had been killed this June marking the highest monthly fatality totals since June 2008, when there were a total of 23 fatalities. The tone of the reports was one of surprise and an underlying view that this was a new development and our efforts in Iraq are failing. This is an example of the problem I have with media “sound bite” reporting that seems to be becoming more widespread. To anyone following statements released by the military leaders in charge of these operations this should come as no surprise. They have repeatedly stated while things have greatly improved there are still challenges.
Two recent Department of Defense Bloggers Roundtables I participated in provide more insight into these issues. In my last blog, I wrote a little about the May 27 roundtable with Major General Jeffrey Buchanan on Operation New Dawn and promised to finish up my summary. On June 22 I also participated in one with Lt. General Frank G. Helmick, U.S. Forces-Iraq deputy commanding general (operations) the man responsible for day to day operations of our forces in Iraq.
Currently there are 47,000 U.S. troops remaining in Iraq. Unless something changes they are scheduled to depart by December 31, 2011. As mentioned in my last blog, starting last September the mission shifted from security to stability operations. That included three major tasks:
– Advise, train, assist and equip the Iraqi security forces
– Conduct, partner, in counterterrorism operations
– Support and protect the civilian workers that come from the U.S. Mission-Iraq or the embassy as they work to build civil capacity throughout Iraq
One of the many lessons learned from Vietnam was if you’re going to use the military you have to give it a mission with measurable and specific tasks and goals and a defined end state. If not, it’s difficult to define what success is. The intent is that using this methodology forces the decision makers to very carefully think out and consider if indeed the military is the right solution to a particular problem. If a decision is made to intervene militarily, how do you use them and what parts of the military needs to participate. A perfect example is Libya which started out as a stated effort to enforce a no fly zone to protect Libyan civilians. There has obviously been “mission creep” but that’s another blog.
This is my long winded way of stating why I begin with listing the major tasks of our forces. One of the metrics of determining how well U.S. operations are going over there is to look at the levels of violence and how well the Iraqis are handling it. As mentioned in my last blog and according to General Buchanan, “In 2007, we averaged 145 attacks per day throughout the country; in 2008, that was down to 49 per day; in 2009, 20 attacks per day; 15 for 2010; and for the first four months of 2011, we’re averaging 13 attacks per day.” During the June 22nd roundtable General Helmick provided an update saying that there are now 15 different kinds of attacks a day. He indicated these attacks are against both U.S. and Iraqi Security forces and consist of terror attacks, rocket attacks, IED, and small arms attacks. The primary culprits are: al-Qaida and other terrorist groups, illegal arms and militias, basic criminality.
How are the U.S. and Iraqi Security forces doing against these threats? General Buchanan says al-Qaida is severely degraded, doesn’t have popular support and can no longer roam around the country as they did in 2005 and 2006 “but are still dangerous. They have never changed their ideology and they have never come off of their desire to drive a wedge between the government and the people. And they’re willing to murder as many Iraqis as they can to make…their points known.”
Discussing the militias, he stated: “…many of them receive support from outside the country, directly or indirectly, through provision of training, financing, provision of equipment and weapons. And because they frequently represent a foreign agenda, they undermine Iraq’s sovereignty.” Speaking of crime: “There is a…underlying element of basic criminality throughout the country, and at least some of the armed robberies, kidnappings and assassinations are just tied to people that are…bent on making money…it’s not necessarily always tied to terrorist acts or militias…”
What are the other challenges? The first one General Helmick mentioned was the continuing lack of an Iraqi Minister of the Interior and Minister of Defense. The country’s Prime Minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, is filling those roles for now. The New York Times had an excellent article (Titled: Bitter Feud Between Top Iraqi Leaders Stalls Government) today talking about the gridlock in the Iraqi government. How does this relate to the U.S. mission? According to the General many of the decisions that need to be made at the strategic level in order for the Iraqi forces to move ahead are not being made.
The second challenge General Helmick discussed is the “uptick” in number of daily violent attacks. My thoughts are just as U.S. learned lessons from Vietnam so have our enemies. One of them is in play here and that is concern of the U.S. public over the killing and wounding of our troops. So the mindset of our enemies is the more casualties you can make the more public support for conflicts starts to fall. There is a lot of posturing going on among the political groups in Iraq concerning the impending U.S. departure. I believe the increase in attacks is two fold first so some can claim “victory” in making the U.S. leave. Second to make sure U.S. public support is not there in case the Iraqi government asks the U.S. to delay the departure because of security concerns.
General Helmick also said Iraqi forces have made great progress on internal defense but are a work in progress on external defense. Here we’re talking about defense of their borders. For instance right now they apparently can’t defend their air space but U.S. forces are conducting extensive combined arms type training with the Iraqi Air Force as well as Army, Navy, and Marines. Additionally, according to General Buchanan “the radar capability they have is increasing, in that by the middle of next year they’ll have a very capable air defense radar system that covers the entire county, and they’ll be able to –with a robust communications system—really be able to provide a complete system of both sensing and warning throughout the country.”
I asked General Helmick how was the training going for Iraqi Intelligence professionals. Here I was referring to those involved in support to military operations. He indicated the Iraqis have a very good humint capability but they were lacking in the other intelligence disciplines. They’ve set up extensive training and have advisors in both the Ministers of Interior and Defense. He did say there was a problem with the various intelligence agencies sharing information they were working to solve. That does sound like a familiar problem.
Think I’ll end here. Now that I’m back home in Colorado I have this intense desire to ride my bike along the river near my home. As always my views are my own.
