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Comeback Complete

Comeback CompleteAmidst a backdrop of popular discontent and social strife, Yingluck Shinawatra, sister to ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was swept into office Sunday on a tidal wave of support from the poor, rural Thai majority. Ms. Yingluck will become Thailand’s first female prime minister in August when she will be all but certainly be given the title. While unsurprising given the latest poll numbers running up to the election in Thailand on Sunday, the results are nonetheless stunning: Yingluck’s Pheu Thai party looks to have secured 264 out of a possible 500 seats. The extent of such a majority is significant insofar that Pheu Thai will not have to seek out secondary parties to form a coalition government; a majority of seats means that Pheu Thai now has a popular mandate to form its own government. However, recent reports suggest Pheu Thai will form a coalition with four smaller parties to give itself additional support in the halls of Thai government.

Traditionally, despite the litany of bloodless military coups, Thailand’s political practice had been perceived by many observers as a rather quiet process. That stigma changed dramatically in 2006 when Thaksin was ousted in a military coup while traveling abroad. During elections the previous year, Thaksin galvanized the rural constituencies with populist programs such as farm subsidies and cheap access to quality healthcare; the result was the largest electoral victory in Thailand’s democratic history. His overthrow touched off a series of events, including the politicization of the Supreme Court, the disbandment of political parties, and the constant shredding and rewriting of the state’s Constitution.

The chaotic political climate led to massive street protests. In 2008, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD, “Yellow Shirts” in Thai parlance), a representation of the oligarchic elite of Bangkok filled the streets of the capital and eventually seized control of the international airport in an attempt to remove a pro-Thaksin government. Their efforts were successful following a legal adjudication by the country’s Supreme Court. In 2010, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD, “Red Shirts”), a collection of mostly poor and peasant citizens from the northern regions of the country similarly clogged the streets of Bangkok for more than two months, protesting against the undemocratic government of Abhisit Vejjajiva. Abshist, the leader of the rival Democrat Party, was given the premiership following the 2008 Yellow Shirt protests. When peaceful attempts to disband the demonstrations met with failure, the government turned to violent means to disperse the crowds, resulting in over 90 deaths of both citizens and soldiers.

The election results are a clear indication that the lower classes in the country have been given a voice in the political process and intend to maintain an active and participatory role in how the nation is governed. Participation was an integral part of Thaksin’s platform when he was first elected in 2001 by mobilizing support in the poorer areas and capitalizing on Thailand’s augmenting class divide.

The results will also doubtlessly upset the Bangkok political establishment of royalists, socialites, and members of the military, traditionally Democrat supporters. Abhisit’s cohorts demand, should Thaksin return to the country after nearly three years spent in exile in Dubai, is that he serve a two-year prison sentence, of which he was convicted in absentia in 2008 for “conflicts of interest” (read: corruption, graft, etc.). As prime minister, Yingluck could commute her brother’s sentence, enabling Thaksin to return to Thailand and, in all likelihood, serve a “behind-the-scenes” role in the new Pheu Thai government. Abhisit, whilst conceding the election, asked Thais to choose reconciliation over additional strife.

Defense Minister General Prawit Wongsuwon, speaking on behalf of the military establishment, stated that the army will accept the electoral results and not intervene. Such statements are sure to be met with skepticism by an electorate that has seen its fair share of military coups since the country’s transition from absolute to constitutional monarchy in 1932. Furthermore, the unknown variable of Thaksin’s reappearance in Thailand could also have lasting repercussions. The BBC’s Rachel Harvey has postulated that Thaksin’s return may provide an impetus for the military to step in.

Thaksin’s status, the role of the military, and the possibility for renewed street protests from the anti-Thaksin, Bangkok elite crowd are all important factors to remain cognizant of in the coming weeks as the Pheu Thai-led coalition government takes office.

 

Author

Tim LaRocco

Tim LaRocco is an adjunct professor of political science at St. Joseph's College in New York. He was previously a Southeast Asia based journalist and his articles have appeared in a variety of political affairs publications. He is also the author of "Hegemony 101: Great Power Behavior in the Regional Domain" (Lambert, 2013). Tim splits his time between Long Island, New York and Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Twitter: @TheRealMrTim.