So, I suppose it is about time for a few words on the state of South African politics. Two related caveats. First, forgive an inordinate amount of typos. And second, forgive a lack of links. The reason for both is that on this trip I have had only an iPad and while it is a fun toy and useful for a good many things, it is a bit tough for blogging.
I have written time and time again about what I see as the potential break in South African politics. By “break” I mean what I see as the dissolution of the ANC coalition whereby the lectures of COSATU and the SACP break away from the Tripartite Alliance to forge their own way. Well, the current state of the ANC seems to have the unions and the communists more at odds with the ruling party than ever. Add in the volatility of Julius Malema, the leader of the ANC Youth League, and we have a condition for upheaval.
Of course as always the reality is that even if COSATU and SACP break from the ANC the party of liberation will continue to prevail. So to leave the ruling party, at least in the short term, would be to leave the cozy womb of power. It is understandable, then, why such a step is not an easy one to take.
But there is the possibility that Jacob Zuma, who so benefitted from the ANC’s decision to remove Thabo Mbeki from the ANC presidency in 2007, which helped set in motion the events leading to Zuma’s presidency of the ANC and eventually South Africa, might face his own Polokwane moment as dissent about him is becoming increasingly vocal. Of course the ANC needs to be wary of going to the internal coup well too often. But there is a certain irony incumbent in Zuma, who benefitted so much from internal dissent within the party, now vocally trying to quell public division as a distraction and in his desire not to talk about succession.
Even as COSATU flexes its muscles (and there is a major strike by NUMSA, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa going on right now) there are signs that it still is not going to try to undercut Zuma. Yet. And that “yet” might be the most significant conditional in South African politics.
