In physics a quantum state is indeterminate until observed. This is known as the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and well illustrated by the famous “Schrödinger’s Cat” example in which the cat is both dead and alive at the same time. It’s very rare to find examples of such non-intuitive “both at the same time” situations in the modern (and macro) non-quantum world, but the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is coming very close to that. Can it be that the U.S. is both withdrawing from Afghanistan and staying…at the same time? That’s the unsettling prospect raised by this report by the UK paper The Telegraph, which notes that although the U.S. has begun the troop draw-down, plans are now underway for a continued U.S. presence in that country:
America and Afghanistan are close to signing a strategic pact which would allow thousands of United States troops to remain in the country until at least 2024, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. The agreement would allow not only military trainers to stay to build up the Afghan army and police, but also American special forces soldiers and air power to remain. The prospect of such a deal has already been met with anger among Afghanistan’s neighbours including, publicly, Iran and, privately, Pakistan. It also risks being rejected by the Taliban and derailing any attempt to coax them to the negotiating table, according to one senior member of Hamid Karzai’s peace council. A withdrawal of American troops has already begun following an agreement to hand over security for the country to Kabul by the end of 2014.
I’m not sure that the Obama Administration has sufficiently prepared the American people for a longer duration mission in Afghanistan. Even if the strategic rationale is compelling, it will be interesting to see if the Administration is able to spin a simultaneous withdrawal and staying policy to a skeptical public. If they need help explaining the concept, I’m certain Schrödinger’s Cat is still available.
