Turkey’s policy in Libya raises questions of how patient it will be with neighbor Syria.
In an effort to show Turkey’s leading role in Libya, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutolgu arrived in Benghazi, Tuesday (August 23rd), to meet with the leaders of the National Transitional Council (NTC), becoming the first foreign minister to visit Libya since the rebels entered Tripoli.
Davutoglu pledged continued NATO support until security is established, underlining the need for a free, democratic, secure, stable, and united Libya. He also pledged financial and material support, issues he said would be taken up at a meeting between the Libyan Contact Group political directors later in the week in Istanbul.
“This is precisely why Turkish foreign policy is so clever,” says Joshua Walker, a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund. “He is speaking on behalf of the international community and reaping the political benefits of being the first leader that will be covered extensively beyond just the Turkish media and further extends influence in Libya.”
When the uprising against Colonel Muammar Qaddafi began in February, Turkey looked coolly on sanctions and NATO intervention. Turkey was accused of “flip-flopping”, following an ambiguous policy that was unable to balance interests and ideology.
Turkey’s hesitation to turn on Qaddafi was largely driven by economic interests, centered on a burgeoning contracting and construction business. Nearly 25,000 Turkish citizens were employed in Libya and contracting firms had undertaken over $20 billion in projects.
However, in May Turkey called on Qaddafi to step down and recognized the rebel NTC in early July. It has since played a proactive role in support of the rebels, both materially and psychologically.
In July Turkey hosted the fourth Libya Contact Group meeting in Istanbul and over the past few weeks it has been providing the rebels with large quantities of fuel and money as they made their final push to Tripoli.
By recognizing the rebels Turkey fell in line with the international community and calculated the rebels would eventually prevail. With close and friendly relations with the NTC, Turkey has now set itself up to play a major economic and political role in Libya.
“Turkey will continue engaging Libya economically as it had done prior to the Arab Spring, but now, as Libya undergoes political transition, Turkey will also tout its democratic credentials to further engage the region,” says Daphne McCurdy, a Senior Research Associate at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).
“In many ways Turkey is one of the rebels’ most important allies now, since Ankara has the ability to bring regional clout and support to them, and given its NATO membership and chairmanship of the OIC, it can truly bridge East and West for the rebels as they seek international support for a unified Libya,” says Walker.
What looks like the imminent fall of Qaddafi has also drawn parallels with the brutal crackdown unfolding in Syria, where Turkey has called on the regime to initiate reform and cease violence against demonstrators.
“What is happening in Libya is a lesson for the leaders of the region. It shows that leaders who do not listen to their people cannot stay in power,” Davutoglu warned Monday, in what many commentators viewed as a hidden warning to the Assad regime.
Syrian promises of reform amid continued crackdown aren’t viewed as credible by Turkey, with Davutoglu going so far as to say there is nothing more to talk to Assad about – although Turkey has fallen short of breaking ties or calling for Assad to step down.
The costs to Turkey of breaking completely with Syria would be high given the importance of its neighbor’s stability to Turkey, domestically and regionally.
Yet Turkey appears to be playing a number of hands, allowing the Syrian opposition to meet and organize in Turkey. The Libyan experience has shown Turkey can change its position very quickly – something the Assad regime may be beginning to recognize.
“If anyone in Syria thought that ‘brotherly love’ between Assad and [Prime Minister] Erdogan would sustain this relationship they are sorely mistaken. Turkey has already made a rhetorical turn on Syria like it did on Libya, the question is when will there be concrete action either individually or in concert with the international community with Turkey leading,” says Walker.
Note: This article was published in Southeast European Times on August 24th.
