Summary 2011
Latin America in 2011 became more important and influential on the world stage as the economies of the United States and Europe could not achieve the growth it required after the 2008 economic crisis, placing emphasis on the BRICS nations, particularly Brazil in Latin America to be the engine of global growth for the next few years. Barak Obama’s visit to the region in March 2011 sought to reengage the United States with Latin America, and Brazil in particular as Obama and Dilma promised to construct stronger ties in person.
Conflicts worldwide such as Greece’s debt problems, Libya and the continuing drug war in Mexico dominated much of the news as Latin American countries had to redefine their relationships with the Middle East among changes resulting from the Arab spring. Hugo Chavez’s loss of his ally in Libya and a futbol stadium named after him in Tripoli were overshadowed when the world found out that Mr. Chavez has cancer and was undergoing treatment for his illness. Despite these ancillary issues, most of the news in 2011 was about the positive growth in countries like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. Recently Cuba decided to open its economy to foreign investors who can now purchase Cuban cars and property, more importantly allowing Cubans to purchase a larger range of foreign goods themselves. Latin America in 2011 was clearly about investment and growth, something that would have thought to be unrealistic just a few years ago.
Most Unexpected Event
There were many events this year that could have been mentioned as the most unexpected, but the one that I believe would have never happened and will have a massive effect in the region and for foreign relations for many countries in Latin America is the announcement that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has cancer. Despite Mr. Chavez making the announcement that he has beaten his illness for now, the effect on him physically and mentally is very evident and it is hard to say whether or not it will continue to affect his health and his decision making in 2012. Hugo Chavez who has sought to be re-elected in perpetuity may not be able to achieve this goal if his personal health is not stable, and it leaves the future of Venezuelan political open to challengers to Chavez’s revolution of policy.
Person or People of the Year
It is hard to choose one individual who stood out this year in the region as the person of the year, so I will mention a few that have been noteworthy in 2011. I believe despite criticism of his popularity, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has been able to achieve some growth in Mexico’s economy beyond what many have forecasted while still fighting an intense battle with drug cartels within Mexico. His critic and fellow PAN party member, former President Vicente Fox is pushing against Calderon’s policy as it creates extreme violence and is suggesting a legalisation of the narcotics trade in Mexico, an idea that will likely gain further attention as the Mexican Army and police continue to fight with Mexico’s well funded and well armed cartels.
Another round of praise should be giving to President Santos of Colombia and President Dilma of Brazil for keeping both countries on the path of positive and impressive economic growth despite international economic instability in 2011. The re-election of Cristina Kirchner this year also reflects positive economic developments in Argentina during her time in office, despite the loss of her husband and dealing with recent economic difficulties and trying to recover from the economic collapse in 2001. While many still criticise her actions, she was able to be re-elected due to her positive efforts.
Forecast for 2012
The economic issues with Europe and the US will dominate the international news as well as that of Latin America. Prolonged economic issues in Europe and the US may start to have a negative effect in Latin America despite all efforts for positive growth. Brazil will get increased attention as an economic superpower as the international community will place more dependency on the BRICS. Conflict between BRICS will increase as countries like Brazil and the United States challenge China on its low currency policies and seek to turn around the US and European economies. The news will be dominated until Nov 2012 by the US election, overshadowing many other news reports in the region, unfortunately…
The Arab Spring may turn into a Persian Spring, or simply direct conflict with Iran as more information comes out about its nuclear program and sanctions continue on Iran. Support for Iran and the Arab Spring will take an interesting route as Venezuela and Brazil redefine its relationship with Iran and the Arab countries as political change takes hold and then changes again and again. Latin America, especially Brazil and perhaps Mexico will become more dominant and more modest players on the world stage as the US and Europeans start to recognise many BRICS as partners and allies. The result is that Latin American nations will be forced to choose where their foreign policy lies in relation to outside global conflicts of interest. The health of Hugo Chavez will have a great impact on leftists in the region as if a power vacuum is created in Venezuela, the ideological core of leftist policies in Latin America could lose its strongest voice, and it will undoubtedly affect Venezuela’s and Brazil’s relations with Iran as having an ally in Latin America.
