In 1988 I was pulled out of an assignment in Hawaii18 months early and sent to Korea to be part of the U.S. Forces Korea staff. My job would be Chief, Combined Indications and Warning (I&W) Center, Intelligence Production Division. In civilian terms, I ran the newsroom. It was a 24/7 job and my folks and I had the primary responsibility for providing warning to the U.S. and South Korean military if North Korea was either preparing to attack or preparing to incite a crisis by provocative actions. As part of my duties I would also be responsible for heading up the intelligence support for the 1988 Olympics which were to be held in the South Korean capitol of Seoul.
My first day there instead of being taken to my new office as expected, I and all the other newly arrived personnel were bused over to a huge building and provided weapons, tents, shovels, army camouflage uniforms, helmets etc.; everything we would need if North Korea attacked and we had to go into combat. I felt out of my element. I was in the Navy! I didn’t know how to set up a tent! When they were done with me, I couldn’t even lift up the bag full of stuff they gave me. I had to drag it into my new office. That was my wake up call. I was no stranger to the North Korean threat and knew intellectually we were technically still at war with them but I didn’t really feel it in my solar plexus until I sat in that office looking at all the “war fighting stuff” I had been given while also realizing I was within range of North Korea’s artillery. This brings me to what I’d like to blog about today.
North Koreans mourn the death of Kim Jong-Il. Source: Kyodo News/AP Photo
With the death of Kim Jong-il and his third son Kim Jong-un taking over there’s even more uncertainty than usual. Yesterday there were several media reports slamming the intelligence community for not knowing Kim Jong-il had apparently been dead for two days before the official announcement was made. Being retired I no longer have access to classified information but it has been reported in open sources since at least 2008 that he was very ill and was grooming his son to succeed him as his father had done for him. In my experience the press is usually one of the first groups of people to find out about the death of a head of state. Since North Korea is one of the most secretive nations in the world, even the press wasn’t aware of the event before the official announcement.
The question on the mind of many is what next? One of the questions is who is in charge. There are reports today that Kim Jong-un will be ruling with “the help” of the military and some top leaders from his father’s inner circle. In today’s Washington Post it’s stated:
“Analysts say two close, trusted family members and political power brokers have emerged as Kim Jong-un’s main protectors: paternal aunt Kim Kyong Hui and her husband, Jang Song Thaek, who have risen to the top of North Korea’s political and military elite since the succession campaign began two years ago. Both 65, they also have the weight of seniority so important in a society that places a premium on age and alliances.”
I submit at this point it’s not really the most important thing. Since the society is so closed there’s really no way of knowing for sure who is really running things unless a high level official defects. What is really most important at this point in my opinion is what their military is actually doing. Around the time of the announcement of Kim Jong-il’s death there were reports of North Korea firing off short range missile tests. I don’t believe in coincidences and believe that was just their way of stating we may be in mourning but our military is still around so don’t think of taking advantage of us during our period of mourning by attacking.
One might counter that by saying there is no way the U.S. or South Korea would attack North Korea. I would respond by saying you have to put yourself in the mind set of a North Korean military leader. They would not have an army of 1.3 million and in spite of the poverty of their country devote a large portion of their budget on defense if they did not feel we and the South Koreans were a major threat. In the following days we need to be looking at things like are they moving more forces towards the DMZ? What are their naval and air forces doing. Are they preparing for any more missile tests? The answer to these and similar questions will give you a better sense of the direction of the new leadership.
On December 21, 2011, the Yonhap news agency reported:
“Kim Jong-un, the heir-apparent and son of deceased North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, issued his first military order just before the announcement of his father’s death this week, a South Korean source said Wednesday, in an indication of the junior Kim’s control over the nation’s armed forces.
The North’s state media reported Kim Jong-il’s death Monday, two days after it occurred. The Seoul source said before the passing was announced, Kim Jong-un ordered all military units to halt field exercises and training and return to their bases.
“This is a direct example showing Kim Jong-un’s complete control over the military,” the source said, adding the move also indicated that the younger Kim is poised to become the top commander of the North’s military.
Kim Jong-un became vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and a four-star general last year, indicating Kim Jong-il’s intentions to make his youngest known son the country’s next leader.
South Korean intelligence officials had previously believed Kim Jong-un had not yet assumed full control over the armed forces in the aftermath of his father’s sudden death.”
One might say with new leadership is it possible North Korea might be more cooperative? I don’t believe he would have been chosen to be the successor if his father had believed he did not share his views of foreign and national security policy. What can we expect in the future from the new leadership? I think it will be business as usual. On April 12th of this year General Walter Sharp, who was head of U.S. forces in Korea at the time (the mew commander is General James Thurman) while testifying before U.S. Senate, Committee on Armed Services responded to the following question from Senator John McCain:
“It seems to me that we’ve been through this cycle for many years now of confrontation, acts of aggression, heightened tensions, then outreach, negotiations, on and on and on and on. We always seem to end up where we were, but unfortunately it’s been coupled with North Korean increased capabilities of both acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. Has that been your experience, and what would you say to American policymakers if you agree with that cycle that’s been going on
for many years? How do we break that cycle?”
General Sharp responded:
“Sir, first off, I do agree with it, that that is the cycle that has been going on over the last several years. Unfortunately, we see no signs of that cycle changing. I think we’re in a
cycle right now where North Korea is asking for concessions in food, and you put that on top of what they did last year; it does not paint a good future for the North Korean—where North Korea is going, especially for their people. Then put on top of that the issues that they’re working through with succession. I do worry that there could be continued provocations into the future, based upon the cycles that we’ve seen in the past.
Having said that, both the Republic of Korea and the U.S. are working very hard to take the lessons that we have learned from the previous provocations, especially those of last year, and working to make sure that we have a solid plan that will hopefully deter, but if not deter be prepared to very strongly respond to future North Korean provocations.
The attack on November 23rd that killed the Republic of Korea civilians and service members and the Cheonan before that truly changed the Republic of Korea to say that we have to work together to better deter and respond very strongly to North Korean
attacks, that will hopefully change their calculus in the future that they will not do these attacks on the Republic of Korea.
The last thing I’ll say is, North Korea does have an opportunity to change. I think the world has made that very clear. If they de-nuclearize, if they promise to not do the attacks in the future and apologize for their previous acts, the world I think will come to
their assistance. But they have to show and demonstrate that commitment before I think the world is willing to do anything in the future because of the cycle that we’ve seen so many times in the past.”
Someone could say, well they may have a military of 1.3 million but how good is it? Are the defense and military types just making up a threat to make sure the military budget isn’t cut too much? I would refer you back to the incidents, General Sharp referred to. These were no isolated incidents. There have been countless others over the years. One of the things that make North Korea so dangerous is that we would receive little or no warning of an attack. I was checking out the U.S. State Department web site. They provide some insightful information on this subject:
“The North deploys the bulk of its forces well forward, along the demilitarized zone (DMZ). Several North Korean military tunnels under the DMZ were discovered in the period from the 1970s to the present day. Over the course of several years, North Korea realigned its forces and moved some rear-echelon troops to hardened bunkers closer to the DMZ. Given the proximity of Seoul to the DMZ (some 25 miles), South Korean and U.S. forces are likely to have little warning of attack. The United States and South Korea continue to believe that the U.S. troop presence in South Korea remains an effective deterrent. North Korea’s attempts to develop a nuclear weapons program has also been a source of international tension (see below, Reunification Efforts Since 1971; Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula).”
As to how good are their forces. I would say the lack of warning and proximity of their forces to Seoul gives them a powerful advantage. The U.S. and South Korea would eventually beat them back but it would be ugly. Seoul would probably suffer major damage and there would be much loss of life.
Think I’ll end here but would like to say one last thing. I wasn’t bragging when talking about my job assignment in Korea. There were many talented, hard working successful people who held that job before me and many who held it after I left. As I write this there are many hard working intelligence people watching the situation very closely. We may never know their names but owe them a tremendous amount of gratitude. It is my hope they get time off to celebrate the holidays with their friends and families.
