In Need of the New Left

Last week, Raul Castro announced that he would step down from power in 2018. The last Castro to leave the seat of power in Havana is effectively ending a half-century long novella starting in the 1950s, etching the names of Castro and Che across all of Cuba and world history. The strength of the left in Latin America owes a lot to Fidel and Raul Castro, the ideas of Che, and the revolution in Latin America. While the history of Cuba and Che has rooted leftist ideas in Latin American history, the most influential and traditional leftists in the region seem to be making their exits from history with a strong base of support still in need of assistance, guidance and leadership.

One of the issues with many leftists in Latin America is that while there are a lot of supporters that will never disappear as long as inequality is at one of the highest level worldwide, left-wing leaders often are successful in applying their policies because they are charming and popular individuals. Despite many criticisms of corruption in leftist administrations in Latin America, continued support and the election of leftist leaders comes from their ability to speak to the minds of many in the region who live at the spear’s end of existence in their daily lives in the cities and towns in Latin America.

So who will replace the Castros once they retire? It had been thought that Hugo Chavez in Venezuela would be the natural successor in the region, but recent months has revealed his health as an issue that cannot be avoided, and Venezuela’s ruling party is struggling to keep their hold onto power without the main ingredient that put them in power in the first place, that of Chavez himself. Yesterday, Hugo Chavez met his eventual death, and while expected, it is really the official beginning of the next era of the future of the left in Latin America.

The Economist recently published two interesting articles on Chavez and recently re-elected President of Ecuador Rafael Correa that might shed some light on how the future of the left may develop in the region. The author speaks in great detail about Chavez’s return from his treatments in Cuba. The unnamed author goes into a brilliant discussion on how the parties will deal with the ill president and the division of powers laid out in the constitution. He claims that for the most part the constitution is being ignored in order to keep Chavez in control. It is a wonderfully laid out article, but my final assessment of the situation regarding the presidency of Venezuela after studying many years of Latin American politics and studying constitutional law is that the president was simply very sick, he had aggressive cancer and needed to rest in order to be as healthy as he can be considering his awful illness. He passed away yesterday at 58, leaving his revolution to the party in power that faces an election in 30 days. During his illness, he was extremely limited in being able to stay at the head of government and as the de facto leader of this generation’s left in Latin America.

One of the left’s main weaknesses is its link to populism as a method of support. It is hard to say who will gain power in Venezuela or Cuba now that the leaders of the cause will no longer be available to support it in the future. In a separate Economist article, the victory of Rafael Correa in Ecuador’s election with 57 percent of popular support shows that leftists do not lack support in the region and that their policies can have a future in a country like Ecuador. It is uncertain whether or not Correa or someone like Evo Morales can become the new Castro or Chavez, but if populism can go beyond one person and become a political party with a strong mandate and leaders, it can avoid the eventual collapse of leftist popular movements that are always expected in government and by investors. Populism often creates a revolutionary situation in a country, but chaos at the end of one person’s life does not always have to end ideologies on the left in Latin America. Ideas on the left exist in all countries in Latin America to a very large degree, and populism does not always have to bring an end to social ideas for Latin Americans. For the future left, another populist voice may be needed to further expand a leftist revolution, but the left will always be at the core of social ideas in the region.