A few months ago, Iran denied that a tweet coming from its President was legitimate by simply denying that the Twitter account issuing the tweet was legitimate. Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, spoke briefly with a reporter from the Israeli newspaper Maariv, before delivering a speech at the UN Economic, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s General Assembly in Paris. In reference to the West’s aim to prevent a nuclear armed Iran, he said simply that “no military option will ever succeed.”
This statement is, of course, incorrect. While it is probably true that no military option will ever succeed in preventing this Iranian regime from weaponization – it has been argued very powerfully by Jeffrey Goldberg (as well as others) that a military strike could in fact speed up Iran’s weaponization process – it is certainly not true that NO military option could ever succeed. If the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia or some other world actor suddenly began dropping nukes of its own across the Persian state, that would succeed in preventing Iran from achieving weaponization, at least for the foreseeable future. Likewise, a full ground invasion of Iran, or a carpet bombing of Tehran, Bushehr, Fordow, Natanz, etc., would certainly disprove Zarif’s comment. A military option COULD succeed. But Iran understands that these options are not currently on, or really anywhere near, the table. Israel doesn’t have the capacity for it and the US does not seem to have the stomach for it. But should the status quo shift dramatically, due to an act of aggression by Iran or one of it’s proxies, things not currently on the table could be added quickly.
Iran has made it very clear that they are open to negotiation. Their new charm offensive has been extremely productive for them in opening a dialogue with the West (which is making Israel nervous). But part of these efforts has been making for awkward situations between Iranian officials and the mullahs in Iran. Zarif, as well as many other ministers, are openly and eagerly using social media sites that are banned in Iran. The FM has also denied Iranian Holocaust denial, explaining those claims were limited to past President Ahmadinejad, and are not widespread beliefs in Iran, despite numerous comments from the Ayatollah on the subject and the fact that Iran has been host to entire conferences dedicated to Holocaust denial. Then, enwrapped in the throws of his charm offensive, he made a quick comment to an Israeli reporter. It was an altogether innocuous statement (who wouldn’t claim the ineffectiveness of threat during a time of diplomatic initiative?). But rather than the Iranian regime standing up and agreeing with the assessment, or even doubling down on it as might have been expected, they have simply denied that Zarif made the statement, claiming instead that the story was “fabricated.” Bear in mind that Maariv is not some unsourced, political blog site. Maariv is a daily print that has been in circulation since 1948. It is extremely reputable.
Hamid Reza Emadi, newsroom director of Iranian-based Press TV, says that “the Israeli claim that Maariv has interviewed Dr. Zarif is aimed at undermining the morale of the Iran negotiating team by strengthening the hands of their vocal critics at home.”
It seems that Zarif’s comment should have empowered the Iranian negotiating team, not undermined them. After all, he was stating that diplomacy is the only option, thus indirectly showing his support for their efforts. But if parties in Iran chose to see his comment as undermining or somehow inappropriate, their displeasure should be with Zarif. Rather they rejected that the comment was ever made. From a journalistic standpoint, they are trying to literally shoot the messenger. (A claim like this, if true, could easily end careers.)
Iran is trying desperately to be taken as an honest and reliable partner on the world stage. And their efforts have been paying off. The regime has been showing great leniency to its newly-elected politicians, then simply issuing denials as needed, however absurd the premise. If they cannot even be honest about a passing comment to a journalist, or a tweet wishing Jews a Happy New Year, how can they be taken seriously at the negotiating table? Iran is at a crossroads and it is currently trying to split the difference.
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