Foreign Policy Blogs

Summary of Large October-November 2018 Political Poll in Ukraine: Tymoshenko and Her Fatherland Party Are, so far, Clear Front-Runners for the 2019 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

Macro Regions Ukraine
Summary of especially comprehensive poll (ca. 10,000 respondents) jointly conducted by Ukraine’s three leading sociological services KIIS, Razumkov Centre and Rating Group, in October-November 2018:
(1) Prominent presidential candidates’ rating among citizens who have made up their minds and plan to vote:
Tymoshenko (Fatherland) –   21%,
Zelenskyi (comedian) –           11%,
Poroshenko (Solidarity) –       10%,
Hrytsenko (Civic Position) –  10%,
Boyko (Opposition Bloc) –       9%,
Lyashko (Radical Party) –        8%,
Vakarschuk (singer) –               6%,
…..
Sadovyi (Self-Help) –                3%,
Yatsenyuk (People’s Front) –   1%;
(2) Tymoshenko leads in all macro-regions, i.e. in the West, Center, North, South (on par with undeclared candidate Zelenskyi) & East, with the exception of the Donbas where she (8%) is second to Boyko (12%), while Poroshenko gets 4%;
(3) Poroshenko’s “anti-rating” among those who plan to vote: 51.4% (i.e. citizens who will not vote for the candidate, under any circumstances); Tymoshenko’s “anti-rating:” 27.5%;
(4) Tymoshenko beats more or less clearly (while Poroshenko loses, with wide margin, to) all likely potential rivals, in 2nd round of presidential elections (undeclared candidate and comedian Zelenskyi comes with 23% vs. 26% closest to beating Tymoshenko);
(5) Tymoshenko vs. Poroshenko in likely run-off: 29% to 14% of those planning to vote, i.e. Tymoshenko adds amount of additional votes approx. double to those Poroshenko gains, in 2nd round;
(6) Major parties’ electoral support, if next Sunday were parliamentary elections, among citizens who have made up their minds and plan to vote (note: there is a 5% entry barrier, in the proportional part of the voting):
– Fatherland (Tymoshenko) –                       21.7%,
…..
– Civic Position (Hrytsenko) –                        9.8%,
– Opposition Bloc (Boyko) –                           9.2%,
– Solidarity (Poroshenko) –                            8.1%,
– Radical Party (Lyashko) –                            7.0%,
– Ours (Murayev) –                                          4.9%
– Self-Help (Sadovyi) –                                    4.4%,
….
– Freedom (Tyahnybok) –                               3.0%,
– People’s Front (Yatsenyuk) –                       0.6%,
– UDAR (Klychko) –                                         0.4%.
————————————–



 

Author

Andreas Umland
Andreas Umland

Andreas Umland, Dr.Phil. (FU Berlin), Ph.D. (Cambridge), has been a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation at Kyiv, since 2014. He has held fellow- or lectureships at Stanford, Harvard, Oxford, Urals State University, Shevchenko University of Kyiv, Catholic University of Eichstaett, and Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. He is also General Editor of the book series "Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society" (ibidem-verlag.de/spps) and on the Boards of Directors of the International Association for Comparative Fascist Studies (comfas.org) as well as German-Ukrainian NGO "Kyiv Dialogue" (kyiv-dialogue.org).

Personal web site: ieac.academia.edu/AndreasUmland

americasdiplomats_socialmediaasset