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Predicting Future Policy Consequences

Predicting Future Policy Consequences

The analysis of current policy approaches becomes essential when you consider that you are trying to predict future actions in order to achieve a future successful result. Failure in recent policy approaches over the last few years is often a combination of divided interests, poor intelligence and information, and moral blindness. While interests of a few may benefit them, actions that create a difficult outcome for the majority of people cause deep problems. The production of knowingly contradictory information plays a major role as it works to unfocus solutions to issues that require a coordinated response to resolve. The end result of bad policy or intentionally mismanaged solutions is that the worst possible outcomes become reality fairly rapidly. When this occurs, the onus is often placed on those who spoke against the moral ineptitude in the first place in order to blunt effective justice.

Some interesting discussions from policy experts might be helpful in guiding an appropriate conclusion to current events that would lead to sensible future policy approaches. In the discussion: Wrong Lessons @TheChieftain, two military experts decided to have an in-depth chat about how the War in Ukraine will affect future conflicts and the reaction Europeans, Ukrainians and Russians will have a few years after the end of the conflict. This discussion between an academic and former military personnel takes the point of view of those inside the conflict, and removes divisive politics from the discussion for the most part in producing more useful questions that can lead to sensible policy approaches.

In a thought experiment that has received little attention despite its major consequences to world security, Warographics policy analyst Simon goes into extensive detail in his video: Pax Russica: Will Russia’s Defeat Lead to More Wars? Much of the discussion centres around how Soviet and Russian dominance in many parts of its Southern border region have played a role in keeping deeply divided communities from escalating their local conflicts. With the recent weakening of Russian forces in many of those areas, conflict has already started to brew, even amongst members of a security pact that was created to quell future conflicts in their regions. Ignoring these evident trends, especially when the future result has already started to show signs of occurring, is how many of the current conflicts in the region and abroad have spun out of control.

It should be shocking that a country can announce the mass execution of protesters and only receive some attention once it has reached the level of an atrocity. Ignoring evidence of past atrocities until it reaches an extreme is a clear example of failed policy. In some cases, Western countries have delayed justice when their own citizens were executed by the same regime. Ignoring policy evidence is clearly ignoring human rights consequences. In those cases, relying on policy information where you know the analyst has been reliable in the past and they are active on important issues helps provide some useful information. Without much attention from Governments and larger media sources of information, relying on personal accounts of those linked to the events and interpreting the primary and secondary information for yourself may be the only best option.

The end result of policy failures will be felt in your community most likely, if not already being impacted by those consequences. It is hoped that reasonable leaders will attempt to follow reasonable policy, if not, the system is susceptible to being corrupted in a severe manner.



Richard Basas

Richard Basas, a Canadian Masters Level Law student educated in Spain, England, and Canada (U of London MA 2003 LL.M., 2007), has worked researching for CSIS and as a Reporter for the Latin America Advisor. He went on to study his MA in Latin American Political Economy in London with the University of London and LSE. Subsequently, Rich followed his career into Law focusing mostly on International Commerce and EU-Americas issues. He has worked for many commercial and legal organisations as well as within the Refugee Protection Community in Toronto, Canada, representing detained non-status indivduals residing in Canada. Rich will go on to study his PhD in International Law.

Areas of Focus:
Law; Economics and Commerce; Americas; Europe; Refugees; Immigration