Memorial to the Battle of Kursk, the largest tank battle of the Second World War.
Nearshoring and other concepts where a nation and their supportive allies entrench their own economic, policy and security interests may begin in earnest in the upcoming year. This past year has done little to secure a safe society or economic stability anywhere in the world, and the costs of bad policy are now part of the daily lives of most individuals. Views of unappealing outcomes unravelling in unsustainable directions have been made clear to those living in societies based on democratic values, and a clear choice is upon them.
Since Covid, a clear and measured move to take US and Western economic dependence away from China has taken shape. Much of this move involves multinational corporations setting up shop in the USMCA trade zone in Mexico, where a generational trend in uptraining Mexican citizens has been tied to moving manufacturing capabilities into Mexico to serve the North American market. With a productive and technically well trained Mexican workforce, securing US economic activity though Mexico based multinational manufacturing will likely maintain stable markets in the US. This act functions by pulling the US away from dependence on China’s manufacturing might and possible political leverage China may have over the US and its allies in the event of natural barriers or political conflict between the two powers. This move can secure the old NAFTA block of countries, if all members would work with their allies, as opposed to strengthening the threats to themselves and their NAFTA neighbours.
Europe might feel more of the effects from the revolutionary change it needs to make with Russian energy with a colder 2024 upon them. While Europe moves to take in some energy from other parts of the world, accessing energy from the Middle East may become difficult as the Gulf region becomes more erratic and the policy approaches from their own NATO allies keep them in a chilly limbo as opposed to pushing to secure Europe’s energy and security future. The lack of clarity NATO and Europe has had with many of its allies has not only delayed defences being sent to Ukraine, but has given a financial line to Russia in the conflict and has enabled Russian allies to fund, fuel, and ensure attacks on Ukrainian civilians. This indecisive policy comes at a time when NATO and their allies have given billions to the war effort, with families clearing feeling the effects at home. Shaming locals over supporting Ukraine can be seen as a local political tactic at this point, as clearly most have been supportive of Ukraine, and do not deserve to be accused by anyone for their lack of historically significant support. Using Ukraine for local political gain is a major threat to Ukraine’s defence over the next year, and local Government that spin such support for their own political gains hurt Ukraine more than they help.
The structural nature of Western societies has become a major factor in the strength of nations since the masks of many have slipped at the end of 2023. Equality under the law and being able to be productive in a secure society has been challenged by the impression of other systemic norms that often have few roots in justice and equality in modern history. Many opposing systems either are at the brink of collapse, or favour a small cabal of a few powerful elites no matter what label is given from our past or from poorly researched movies. Opportunities for wealth and peace has been bleached from the general narrative by regimes and groups that were already at the end of their shelf life as a political entity, and have no future prospects that anyone would willingly agree to if given a clear picture of those prospects. There are parts of the world that have seen little peace past half a generation, and whose ancestors go back generations as fallen soldiers under the earth of old battlefields in lands that has little value. If a nation does not prepare for any eventuality, including those mentioned above, they can easily turn into a dying society. A society that can live under pax et lux only comes from generations of hard fought values, anything else has proven to simply be the dream of tyrants.
