The 1980s was an era that was characterized by high levels of patriotism in he United States, supported by a generation of action films and accompanying stars. A few months before the release of Top Gun, there was a movie about a kid and his plane called Iron Eagle, a film built around the F-16A/B Viper (as opposed to the F-15 Eagle) being used to dominate a fictional country that played the role of fake Libya at the time. With new developments in Ukraine, the first F-16s are making their way to the war zone, a conflict that has had reduced air power due to the prevalence of so many anti-aircraft systems in the region.
While the renewal of patriotic movements remains to be seen, the promotion of the F-16 in Ukraine is seen as a game changer in the conflict despite the aircraft being a 1980’s classic, with non-stealth vulnerabilities and a limited fuel capacity. The F-14 from Top Gun, F-15 and F-16 were all designed in the late 1970s as a response to the prevalence of the nimble Soviet MiG-21, keeping their place in the front line of US Air Power ever since. While the F-14s have already been retired for sometime, the F-15 and F-16 are still considered some of the best aircraft in operation to date, even if being of an increasingly older design. Upgrades often are to the internal systems, software, radars and modernization of computer systems to keep the F-15 and F-16 potent on the battlefield. Much of these improvements have also been challenged by modern anti-aircraft systems, designed to kill an F-15 and F-16 through many layers of air defence. The narrative on the F-16s being a singularly awesome tool to turn the tide in the conflict comes with a softening of Russian Air Defence and good PR on the 1980s system. Perhaps they would do well with a promotional film after the success of Top Gun: Maverick, as wonder systems like the Leopard 2s and M1 Abrams have not matched the hype in performance, while still operating within successful realistic measures on the battlefield.
Air power in the War in Ukraine was met with some horrific tragedies, with Russian S-300 missile systems tracking Ukrainian aircraft from Belarus and shooting them down. Ukraine’s air arm, while flying in Ukraine, was in danger soon after takeoff in their own territory earlier in the conflict. Recent techniques to destroy Russian Air Defence radars and missiles have taken shape using drones and tactical ballistic missiles like Hi-Mars, focusing on larger and more complex S-400 missile batteries that are designed to challenge advanced ballistic missile systems, but fail against simple drones and is questionable in defending against Hi-Mars. While drone attacks have been able to avoid being shot down by advanced systems on both sides of the conflict, often the S-400 would carry a smaller missile capability and be covered by other shorter range missile systems and radar guided cannons. Why the recent S-400 system in Crimea was unable to be protected is likely due to the lack of the smaller missiles in its own battery. We also do not know if the battery was lacking cover from TOR and Pantsir systems in the area, designed for battery defence. Even with layered defences, swarming a radar with drones and using advanced missiles at the same time are difficult to defend against, especially since the last truly operational radar/gun system was the 1980s era West German Gepard, now dusted off to shoot down terror drones in Ukraine.
It is difficult to know the success rate of drones and Hi-Mars attacks as there is the possibility that many missiles were launched and intercepted until a Hi-Mars was able to complete its mission. These targeted assaults on S-400 systems looks to be preparing for an increased air campaign in Ukraine, likely using donated NATO F-16s. While F-16s have a better chance of surviving anti-air shields, there are so many different systems in Ukraine that the success of the F-16 will be probably come from launching longer range weapons from a distance as opposed to close in attacks. All Russian and Soviet systems were designed to kill F-16s, coming out in the late 1980s, possibly as a response to Maverick and Goose with the ability to detect a volleyball from many miles away. They did not prevent Maverick attacking another fictional country however, and the real risks to the F-16s going to battle in Ukraine comes at high risk as well. The pilots for those missions need to hope for the best, but expect the worst in order to keep themselves safe during missions.