Latin America is not usually high on the list of hotspots for geopolitical analysts. Yet Hugo Chavez is threatening war against neighboring Colombia. (See the note below from a JPMorgan publication today.) Venezuelan President Chavez is America’s nemesis in the hemisphere, and Venezuela shares a long border with Colombia in the north of South America, facing […]
Much news and commentary you hear about the State of Israel has to do with geopolitics and the Arab-Israeli conflict (see my colleague Ben Moscovitch’s blog on this site for a nice selection.) Settlements, will Abbas run or not, Iran’s plans to wipe Israel off the map, Israel’s thoughts about taking military action against Iran, the […]
Looks like Mr. Hu and Mr. Obama and company may have stepped back from the brink of a trade war. See CSFB report below on the recent G-2 meeting on trade and commerce. Not that it’s all about individuals, but sometimes international relations can be driven by the tastes of individual leaders, as argued in a […]
Fitch Ratings published a report this week analyzing the fiscal deterioration taking place in 21 countries in what it calls “Emerging Europe,” which includes three sizable economies — “rising” power Russia’s nearly $1.7 trillion economy, struggling Turkey’s $745 billion economy, and Poland’s nothing-to-sneeze-at $525 billion economy. Like much of the rest of the world, Emerging Europe juiced its […]
“The race to become the first president of the European Union intensified on Tuesday, when Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s veteran prime minister, put himself forward as a potential rival to Tony Blair, the former British premier,” begins an article in the Financial Times. The race to be the first president of Europe is heating up with […]
Steve Yetiv writes in the Christian Science Monitor that “bolstering America makes far more sense for world security in the 21st century than hoping for its decline or undermining it.” From the Middle East to Asia and from terrorism to nuclear proliferation to international economics, the United States helps keep the world safe and prosperous. […]
Is Russia on the rise or in decline? Does Moscow and its regional and global ambitions pose a threat to U.S. interests? In dueling analyses, Sean Goforth and Andrew Swift debate whether Russia is an over-hyped power or gaining ground and steadily tilting the balance of power in its direction. Goforth argues that “Russia undermines […]
In 2001, Argentina defaulted on billions of dollars of sovereign bond debt, closing itself off from access to the international capital markets. For years thumbing its nose at global capital, the Argentine government left the country’s borrowers severely underfunded, and infrastructure and other important investment spending suffered. Once thought of as a rich country and a middle […]
“The multipolar world has become a global reality, recognized as a near certainty by no less an authority than the U.S. intelligence community,” writes Elizabeth Dickinson in the latest issue of Foreign Policy. While missing the complexities of the debate about the global balance of power, the article details some of the historical moments when […]
How will the world become more unified in the next ten years? The Stanley Foundation edited a book to investigate the “paths by which nine powerful nations, a regional union of 27 states, and a multinational corporation could all emerge as constructive stakeholders in a strengthened rules-based international order.” This Monday, the New America Foundation […]
Who do you call when you need to reach Europe? Merkel? Sarkozy? Brown? Barroso? There is no one leader of Europe. Instead of a single voice, it has 27 competing voices. It’s always been a question, and some argue that it limits Europe’s global reach. If the Lisbon treaty is ratified, there could soon be […]
The cover story of this week’s Economist argues that “it is time for the world’s biggest economy to rise from its slumber and play a global role.” Although the Lisbon treaty – and its likely ratification – does not signal an obvious emergence of a European superpower, it provokes the questions, “Will Europe wake up […]
An excellent Economist Special Report on the World Economy last week led with a quote from Pimco CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, that the economy has reached a “new normal,” or recovery on a reduced (less prosperous) path. The Special Report rightly focused on US imbalances with China, the fiscal mess we’re in worldwide (especially in the United […]
In a year, essential Rising Power Brazil goes to the polls. The election is currently heating up. On October 3, 2010 (and if need be, in a second round on October 24), Brazilians will vote for president, all 26 of their governors, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, and two-thirds of their 81 senators. […]
Last week’s Economist had a couple of nice articles on China’s National Day on October 1st, when the Chinese showcased their military, including the DF-31 nuclear-tipped ICBM, which can hit any city in America. Most of these armaments have “Made in China” tags, not unlike all of our clothes and toys. The Economist leader on the subject […]